***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2018.-13.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 18 82 100 11.9 13.9 13.3 2.5 92.5 82.8 9.0 10.1 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 21 79 100 11.7 13.7 13.0 2.5 92.0 83.6 9.6 10.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 13.6 15.0 13.2 2.4 92.0 83.7 10.4 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 8.2 9.5 10.1 2.0 85.7 78.6 5.7 6.1 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 10.0 11.4 10.8 2.1 88.0 80.6 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 27 73 100 9.0 9.6 7.9 1.8 84.2 77.6 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 11.8 13.5 13.1 2.5 91.9 83.9 9.2 10.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 3.6 4.7 8.1 1.9 86.1 80.7 1.7 2.7 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 11.1 12.5 11.1 2.3 90.9 83.7 8.7 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 10.8 12.0 9.2 2.1 87.9 82.0 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 10.4 11.6 10.1 2.1 88.6 82.1 8.0 9.3 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 8.6 9.2 9.0 1.9 86.2 80.5 6.8 7.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 10.0 10.6 8.8 1.8 84.4 78.4 7.8 8.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 11.3 12.2 10.7 2.1 88.8 81.3 9.2 9.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 11.9 12.9 11.5 2.1 87.4 80.7 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 11.4 12.5 9.5 1.9 85.9 79.4 8.9 9.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 11.8 13.1 12.8 2.5 91.0 83.1 9.6 10.8 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 9.2 9.7 8.4 1.9 85.8 80.6 6.4 8.5 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 12.0 13.3 13.1 2.6 93.2 84.8 9.3 10.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 5.6 6.2 6.4 1.8 81.4 78.7 3.4 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 10.8 12.3 12.4 2.3 90.7 82.7 8.3 9.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 11.1 12.6 12.8 2.4 92.8 83.6 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 16 84 100 11.7 12.8 13.1 2.7 94.7 86.5 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 11.0 11.8 10.6 2.1 88.1 82.2 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 11.2 13.2 12.1 2.4 89.9 81.4 8.9 9.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 9.9 10.8 8.1 1.8 82.7 78.0 7.7 8.4 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 22 78 100 12.2 14.1 12.7 2.4 90.9 81.7 9.4 10.7 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 9.6 10.5 10.4 1.9 84.3 78.0 7.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 8.4 9.2 7.7 1.9 85.3 80.6 6.0 7.2 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 11.8 13.7 13.3 2.6 92.6 84.1 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------