***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2018.-06.05.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 11.3 14.3 16.1 5.2 98.5 98.3 9.1 10.1 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 11.6 13.7 15.4 5.0 99.1 98.9 8.7 9.6 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 12.9 15.7 15.6 4.8 98.7 98.3 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 7.6 8.9 11.5 3.5 90.8 90.5 5.0 6.3 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 9.9 12.1 13.2 4.3 97.0 96.8 7.3 8.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 8.3 9.2 9.4 3.4 91.6 91.9 5.8 7.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 11.0 13.7 15.4 5.0 99.0 98.7 8.9 10.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 3.8 5.5 9.6 3.8 96.7 96.2 0.9 1.7 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 10.4 12.8 13.5 4.7 99.0 99.0 7.7 8.4 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 10.4 12.1 10.9 4.0 97.4 97.1 8.0 8.6 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 9.7 11.3 12.1 4.0 97.6 97.3 7.4 8.4 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 8.3 9.5 10.7 3.8 96.4 95.6 6.1 6.8 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 9.1 10.3 10.1 2.9 92.2 92.2 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 10.9 12.8 12.0 3.5 97.4 96.5 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 11.1 12.1 13.0 3.6 93.8 93.9 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 10.9 12.3 11.0 3.3 93.5 93.2 8.3 9.4 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 11.2 13.5 15.0 4.9 99.6 98.9 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 7.9 8.8 9.8 3.4 95.1 94.5 5.8 6.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.9 15.4 5.0 99.4 99.1 8.8 10.0 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 5.1 6.3 8.0 3.3 93.9 94.1 2.8 3.5 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 10.7 12.6 14.7 4.6 98.7 98.4 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 10.4 12.6 14.9 4.7 99.6 99.1 8.6 9.3 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.9 15.1 5.0 99.7 99.3 8.4 9.3 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 10.0 11.5 12.2 3.8 97.5 96.7 8.0 9.1 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 11.3 13.8 15.2 5.0 98.2 97.6 8.3 9.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 8.9 9.9 9.5 3.1 91.9 91.4 6.9 7.9 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 12.2 16.1 15.7 5.1 98.3 97.8 8.6 9.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 9.0 9.9 11.7 3.3 90.7 90.4 6.7 7.7 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 8.1 9.9 8.9 3.3 95.9 95.0 5.4 6.5 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 11.6 14.3 15.8 5.1 98.9 98.7 8.7 10.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------