***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 52.8 89.7 43.1 43.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 39.6 33.1 59.5 97.9 50.1 49.2 26.9 33.0 44.9 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 30.7 45.7 56.0 95.1 47.0 46.4 36.8 46.7 61.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 47.0 61.2 68.6 94.9 52.0 47.7 52.1 60.4 70.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 32.5 53.4 68.3 96.3 54.3 48.6 36.1 40.6 68.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 41.3 55.3 88.6 94.8 50.7 47.5 38.0 55.1 64.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 40.3 27.2 58.3 94.6 46.4 46.9 22.2 30.8 50.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 97.8 100.1 79.2 105.0 60.2 54.3 74.9 90.6 103.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 31.4 42.1 65.4 96.7 52.2 49.3 31.5 41.3 59.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 43.2 60.6 77.8 100.7 55.3 51.8 40.2 56.0 76.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 29.6 44.7 66.8 99.0 53.7 49.6 33.9 42.5 55.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 42.1 55.9 66.0 103.2 59.0 52.6 43.7 51.6 58.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 31.8 42.6 77.5 98.1 50.4 49.2 35.5 42.4 53.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 67.6 61.6 75.1 101.1 54.1 51.2 44.1 60.4 80.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 34.4 40.5 61.4 93.0 48.1 46.1 33.5 41.6 57.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 34.2 45.3 70.8 96.3 51.6 48.1 37.6 44.4 55.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 46.0 40.5 58.0 98.1 51.3 49.7 29.7 40.2 52.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 65.8 66.8 85.5 101.2 56.2 52.5 46.2 57.2 87.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 53.7 49.7 59.5 99.5 52.4 49.7 38.8 46.9 67.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 47.7 66.8 99.9 106.1 60.5 56.5 50.4 64.6 68.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 33.4 48.0 57.0 94.3 48.9 47.6 32.6 48.0 55.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 44.8 43.7 58.4 100.2 54.3 50.3 24.2 38.3 52.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 30.0 45.1 61.2 100.9 54.2 49.9 31.3 41.2 64.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 38.8 49.3 71.7 98.3 50.2 49.7 43.1 49.3 71.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 33.9 43.1 67.0 90.9 46.7 44.4 31.6 47.0 63.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 35.1 51.5 75.2 102.3 58.6 51.0 41.6 44.8 57.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 34.2 47.7 61.6 88.8 44.3 43.0 36.2 51.6 62.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 33.5 48.0 65.5 95.1 52.2 47.8 36.5 47.8 54.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 64.5 88.4 89.8 102.9 56.1 53.5 74.4 83.3 96.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 42.7 35.6 57.9 95.8 48.2 47.4 26.2 37.2 54.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------