***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 11.7 98.4 62.5 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.9 13.9 107.3 63.3 53.7 4.6 7.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.0 14.3 13.2 113.7 62.3 53.4 5.9 10.0 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 15.8 16.9 15.7 102.6 61.1 50.5 8.2 12.7 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 16.9 18.1 16.2 113.8 64.4 52.3 6.5 13.0 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.7 15.0 21.1 96.2 58.2 46.8 4.3 10.4 15.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.7 10.6 13.5 100.6 61.1 53.0 3.7 7.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 12.2 30.0 18.3 123.7 68.6 52.9 14.8 19.8 29.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 12.8 14.0 15.9 118.9 65.4 53.3 6.3 10.2 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 8.8 20.3 18.6 122.2 66.7 52.8 11.2 15.1 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 5.8 15.5 15.9 120.5 67.9 52.1 5.1 9.4 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.3 17.4 14.9 119.3 68.6 51.3 5.2 11.4 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.3 11.2 17.6 104.0 60.8 48.5 4.3 7.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 16.1 17.6 16.9 114.9 65.2 51.5 9.4 13.3 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 10.5 15.5 14.0 95.9 60.2 47.6 5.6 7.3 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.8 15.1 16.2 106.5 64.0 49.4 3.4 6.8 15.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.1 10.4 13.6 101.6 64.4 53.4 5.4 6.8 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.4 16.6 20.3 119.5 66.0 52.2 7.8 14.4 16.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.5 13.5 13.9 113.5 65.1 53.7 4.8 9.8 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.5 18.1 23.5 120.5 67.2 54.6 8.3 15.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.8 13.2 112.0 64.0 53.7 6.2 9.7 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.7 10.8 13.2 105.1 65.0 53.3 6.1 8.8 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.4 12.1 14.3 119.6 66.9 53.0 4.5 7.7 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 14.8 16.8 17.0 118.9 65.6 52.0 6.7 11.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 12.0 16.1 15.4 98.8 60.6 52.1 5.9 9.4 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.3 17.0 16.9 112.8 62.1 50.9 7.1 11.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.4 14.8 14.0 94.5 60.6 51.5 7.1 12.3 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.6 16.1 14.7 98.5 62.0 48.3 5.0 10.1 17.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.5 26.2 21.2 118.7 65.2 52.5 11.9 19.0 26.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 11.1 11.6 13.5 107.6 60.3 53.2 7.0 10.0 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------