***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 16.4 110.3 62.0 53.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 16.6 13.3 19.8 121.8 66.8 57.5 7.0 10.1 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 14.9 13.3 17.1 109.9 61.0 53.2 7.0 11.0 21.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.9 17.6 21.6 111.7 62.1 53.3 4.7 11.8 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.1 13.4 20.9 109.9 57.0 53.0 4.4 9.8 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.0 9.8 27.6 104.8 55.5 51.2 6.1 9.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 11.6 13.4 19.8 121.6 64.4 56.6 3.8 10.3 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.5 22.7 21.8 111.8 60.6 55.2 15.2 20.2 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.3 19.7 106.8 55.3 52.3 4.2 9.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 16.1 16.9 22.4 109.5 58.7 53.8 9.5 13.1 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.4 9.0 20.0 111.9 56.1 53.9 3.0 5.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.8 9.5 18.3 111.9 57.5 55.0 5.4 8.5 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.2 22.9 108.8 54.9 54.2 3.1 7.4 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.2 18.6 23.1 112.8 61.2 53.9 7.4 14.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.7 20.0 108.8 60.6 51.7 1.7 5.1 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.0 12.1 21.9 112.1 54.5 54.3 6.4 10.1 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 10.7 17.4 19.4 122.5 65.8 57.8 5.2 7.9 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.3 17.4 24.4 109.0 62.2 53.3 7.9 13.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 17.5 16.0 19.3 119.8 65.8 56.6 9.7 11.4 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.9 15.4 27.7 110.7 59.2 53.7 6.8 11.1 17.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 13.9 12.9 17.1 106.4 55.1 51.6 4.2 12.3 17.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.5 19.7 121.5 63.6 56.1 5.7 12.3 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.0 17.4 19.4 116.8 64.5 55.2 8.8 13.5 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.5 18.0 21.2 108.9 61.9 53.0 11.5 13.6 21.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.4 8.9 20.9 108.2 57.7 52.4 3.4 6.2 14.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 6.5 19.7 98.5 51.6 49.5 3.3 6.4 12.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.6 16.6 19.6 109.7 60.1 53.1 5.2 14.4 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.4 9.2 21.3 112.9 61.0 52.9 4.5 7.3 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 12.7 23.0 25.6 111.3 62.1 53.7 12.1 19.3 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 13.7 15.8 18.9 118.2 65.4 56.3 8.2 12.2 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------