***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 16.7 106.8 61.0 54.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 6.1 7.2 16.8 97.8 61.6 52.9 2.7 4.6 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.5 12.0 17.0 110.5 61.9 54.8 2.0 7.8 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.6 21.4 21.6 116.3 65.8 58.7 8.4 14.0 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.3 15.7 22.0 115.0 64.4 58.6 3.0 11.5 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.9 17.8 29.4 115.5 62.5 58.3 7.2 12.7 20.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.6 16.4 94.7 63.4 51.9 3.6 5.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 19.6 27.7 26.7 128.7 70.1 63.2 10.4 16.8 26.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 10.8 15.3 21.4 119.0 65.0 59.0 3.8 8.4 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.1 17.8 25.6 121.5 66.8 60.3 5.0 11.6 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 11.2 14.9 21.3 112.5 65.0 58.1 6.6 9.6 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.8 17.3 22.3 126.0 67.5 62.0 4.9 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 10.4 13.2 26.5 118.0 61.5 59.4 2.9 9.3 13.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.2 22.9 115.2 63.5 57.6 4.1 8.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.6 18.4 18.4 119.7 70.4 57.5 4.9 8.3 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 11.1 14.7 23.0 110.2 62.2 56.8 6.7 9.8 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 9.0 10.0 15.9 97.1 62.6 52.6 3.4 5.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.3 17.6 28.0 122.5 66.2 59.3 3.8 11.3 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 13.1 14.8 16.9 101.8 60.6 54.1 3.9 11.4 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.8 17.6 34.0 127.1 70.2 62.6 5.7 10.3 14.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 13.9 18.0 18.7 120.6 65.8 58.5 2.9 11.9 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.2 15.0 96.4 60.0 54.3 4.6 6.8 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 9.7 8.8 17.7 107.4 60.7 55.4 4.2 7.9 9.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.0 18.8 22.4 117.4 62.8 57.2 7.3 12.9 19.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.7 15.5 21.8 113.0 62.2 56.8 4.4 10.8 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.6 14.1 26.7 128.9 66.0 61.8 4.6 6.0 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.5 19.5 106.0 61.1 54.8 5.2 13.5 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.0 13.9 20.2 116.6 67.5 58.1 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 19.3 24.7 29.5 121.7 65.8 59.4 9.1 16.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 9.1 10.6 16.7 98.7 61.4 53.0 1.8 7.4 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------