***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 81 19 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.1 48.9 36.4 24.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 2.1 2.7 8.9 62.4 33.9 29.6 2.3 5.7 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 2.3 2.7 8.7 53.4 30.6 26.5 3.1 8.2 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 4.3 6.9 9.7 50.9 29.3 25.3 7.4 11.1 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 2.1 2.9 9.3 49.9 25.2 25.8 4.0 5.4 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 6.2 7.4 10.4 53.0 32.0 27.1 7.4 11.1 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 80 20 0 100 1.7 3.5 8.6 58.9 32.5 28.9 3.5 4.6 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 10.9 14.9 12.3 60.6 37.9 31.8 13.8 18.7 29.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 84 16 0 100 2.1 2.6 8.5 47.4 22.6 25.1 4.2 6.6 11.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 4.2 3.7 11.3 54.6 31.1 28.8 3.9 10.8 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 3.4 4.2 9.6 55.0 33.6 28.3 4.1 7.3 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 5.1 6.5 10.5 60.3 38.7 31.7 4.2 12.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 4.9 7.8 10.5 56.6 36.0 29.0 7.5 10.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 4.2 5.6 12.2 63.7 31.4 31.2 6.0 9.8 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 1.7 3.5 9.0 50.9 33.3 24.2 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 75 25 0 100 3.9 5.0 9.7 54.3 33.0 26.9 5.0 8.2 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 77 23 0 100 1.8 2.8 9.2 67.6 36.0 31.3 1.8 6.7 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 3.3 2.9 12.7 57.4 28.1 29.8 3.1 12.0 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 2.6 3.4 9.3 63.2 32.7 29.8 3.4 7.3 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.0 6.5 14.7 64.4 36.3 33.1 5.0 10.6 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 1.9 2.8 8.1 47.2 25.7 24.2 3.6 5.7 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 1.7 5.2 10.5 75.5 41.3 34.1 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 3.7 5.5 9.8 62.8 27.8 30.3 6.0 10.5 13.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 2.1 1.5 11.0 55.2 22.7 27.5 4.2 7.0 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 2.2 1.5 8.8 45.5 23.0 23.0 1.8 9.6 12.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 4.3 7.6 11.9 66.8 39.8 33.6 6.5 9.6 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 1.9 3.5 8.5 46.8 29.7 23.5 4.5 8.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 2.4 4.1 9.3 52.4 31.4 25.0 4.2 7.7 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 6.1 9.5 13.5 61.2 33.1 31.5 9.4 18.0 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 1.8 2.7 8.8 58.9 35.4 28.7 2.1 5.8 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------