***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 23.3 -0.1 48.5 48.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.2 24.9 23.4 -0.1 49.3 48.1 23.5 24.9 25.3 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 22.9 24.6 23.3 -0.2 48.4 47.1 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.1 21.3 -0.3 48.8 47.4 15.6 17.3 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 24.9 24.4 21.3 -0.4 49.9 46.6 23.2 24.4 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 23.2 22.9 19.1 -0.3 53.0 47.6 21.6 22.9 23.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.6 23.3 0.0 50.7 48.6 23.0 24.6 25.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.0 12.5 19.4 -0.6 48.4 45.1 10.9 12.6 13.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 22.1 23.6 21.7 -0.3 50.0 46.6 22.2 23.6 25.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 22.1 23.8 20.3 -0.5 48.7 45.9 22.4 23.8 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.9 20.8 -0.4 48.4 46.2 22.6 23.9 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 21.1 22.6 20.3 -0.6 48.0 45.3 21.9 22.7 23.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.9 19.8 -0.5 48.5 46.3 22.7 23.9 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.3 21.5 -0.4 46.5 45.6 23.0 24.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.2 24.9 21.8 -0.1 50.9 49.4 22.9 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.1 20.4 -0.4 48.3 46.6 23.5 24.2 25.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 22.5 24.4 23.2 0.0 48.6 48.4 23.1 24.5 24.7 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 21.6 23.0 19.5 -0.5 49.0 45.7 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 22.7 24.5 23.4 -0.1 48.2 47.6 23.1 24.5 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 16.9 18.2 17.1 -0.6 46.4 44.4 16.9 18.3 19.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 22.3 24.0 22.6 -0.3 49.0 46.9 23.1 24.1 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 23.1 24.5 23.1 0.0 45.0 47.8 23.6 24.7 25.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 23.0 24.3 23.1 -0.2 47.4 46.8 23.3 24.7 25.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 22.2 23.7 21.4 -0.4 48.1 45.9 22.1 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.6 24.1 21.7 -0.2 50.1 48.3 23.2 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 22.0 23.3 19.6 -0.6 48.3 45.9 22.5 23.3 24.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.2 22.4 -0.1 49.6 48.7 23.2 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.5 21.5 -0.3 48.3 47.8 23.0 24.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 16.9 18.4 18.4 -0.5 47.2 45.1 16.8 18.6 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.8 23.5 -0.1 49.5 48.0 23.2 24.8 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------