***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.7 -0.5 47.8 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 25.4 24.5 21.8 -0.3 47.2 49.1 22.8 24.9 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 22.3 24.1 21.7 -0.6 43.8 45.8 22.8 24.9 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.6 16.5 19.9 -0.6 38.8 43.7 15.5 16.9 18.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 22.2 24.1 19.9 -0.7 39.1 43.3 22.7 24.6 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 24.0 23.3 17.9 -0.5 45.6 45.6 21.7 23.5 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 24.8 24.1 21.8 -0.2 49.4 50.3 22.8 24.2 25.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.2 12.4 18.1 -0.7 41.0 43.5 11.6 13.0 13.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 21.4 23.4 20.3 -0.7 40.4 43.7 22.6 24.0 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 21.5 23.2 18.9 -0.7 41.1 43.5 22.4 24.0 25.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 21.5 23.8 19.4 -0.7 40.7 43.3 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 23.6 22.4 19.0 -0.7 40.7 44.0 22.2 23.0 24.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 24.9 24.1 18.5 -0.7 42.3 44.6 23.3 24.5 25.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 21.7 23.4 20.0 -0.7 41.7 44.7 22.3 24.8 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 22.6 24.1 20.5 -0.3 41.3 46.0 23.7 24.6 26.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 22.4 24.5 19.1 -0.7 41.5 43.9 23.3 24.7 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 24.5 23.7 21.7 -0.1 49.3 50.8 22.5 23.8 25.6 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 20.8 23.0 18.2 -0.7 42.4 44.1 21.5 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 24.7 24.1 21.8 -0.4 45.6 47.7 22.3 24.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.1 18.2 15.9 -0.7 40.7 43.6 17.7 18.6 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 21.9 23.6 21.1 -0.7 40.7 44.4 22.3 24.4 25.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.4 21.5 -0.3 46.1 48.7 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 25.3 24.2 21.5 -0.5 43.7 46.2 22.6 24.8 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 20.9 23.2 19.9 -0.7 42.0 44.6 21.8 24.2 25.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 22.2 23.8 20.2 -0.6 42.7 45.9 22.4 24.5 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.4 18.3 -0.6 44.5 45.6 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 22.4 24.2 20.9 -0.5 47.2 47.3 22.6 24.5 25.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 22.1 24.2 20.1 -0.6 39.9 44.0 22.3 24.4 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.7 17.6 17.1 -0.7 42.5 44.0 17.0 18.4 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.1 21.9 -0.4 46.5 48.2 22.4 24.4 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------