***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 20.7 -0.3 42.2 48.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 20.9 22.6 20.9 -0.1 48.4 50.1 21.4 22.6 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 21.0 21.7 20.7 -0.4 42.3 47.3 20.8 22.8 24.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 13.7 14.6 18.7 -0.6 45.9 45.7 13.6 14.8 17.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 21.1 21.9 18.7 -0.7 42.8 44.8 20.5 22.9 24.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 19.6 20.5 16.6 -0.7 42.5 44.1 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 22.6 21.9 20.8 -0.1 50.9 50.3 20.8 21.8 23.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.9 9.8 16.9 -0.8 40.9 43.7 8.5 10.6 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 20.5 20.6 19.1 -0.6 41.8 45.1 19.9 22.3 23.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 20.4 20.7 17.8 -0.7 40.6 44.4 19.9 21.9 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 20.5 20.9 18.2 -0.7 43.1 44.3 20.1 22.2 23.6 29 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 19.9 20.2 17.7 -0.8 41.1 43.5 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 20.6 21.0 17.3 -0.8 40.8 43.2 20.4 22.3 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 21.0 22.2 19.0 -0.6 40.0 44.8 21.8 22.6 23.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 20.8 21.9 19.3 -0.4 48.5 47.3 21.0 22.1 24.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 21.3 22.1 17.9 -0.8 43.2 43.9 20.9 23.1 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 22.0 21.6 20.8 0.0 53.5 51.6 20.7 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 20.1 20.4 17.1 -0.7 40.2 44.5 19.5 21.8 22.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 20.4 21.7 20.9 -0.2 46.1 49.1 21.0 22.3 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 15.0 15.9 14.8 -0.7 41.7 44.2 15.5 16.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 20.8 21.4 20.0 -0.6 42.2 45.9 20.1 22.6 23.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.7 21.8 20.7 -0.1 51.2 50.7 21.6 21.8 23.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 20.8 22.0 20.6 -0.3 44.5 47.5 21.2 22.7 23.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.0 18.9 -0.6 39.6 45.2 20.5 22.2 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 20.4 21.5 19.1 -0.5 43.2 47.3 20.5 21.8 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 19.9 20.6 17.0 -0.8 38.6 42.5 20.0 21.4 23.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 20.5 21.4 19.9 -0.3 43.8 48.2 20.3 22.2 23.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 20.9 21.8 18.9 -0.6 45.5 45.2 20.9 22.1 24.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.2 15.2 16.0 -0.7 40.7 44.2 14.8 16.7 17.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 20.6 22.0 20.9 -0.2 47.0 49.2 20.7 22.3 23.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------