***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 24.8 3.6 94.6 91.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 23.9 26.8 25.3 4.1 95.6 92.9 21.1 22.5 23.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 5 95 100 23.9 26.6 24.9 3.6 94.2 90.2 21.0 22.4 23.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 4 96 100 16.7 17.4 21.6 2.9 88.0 85.7 12.9 14.9 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 23.3 25.2 22.7 3.1 89.7 87.1 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 22.1 22.8 19.8 2.7 85.1 82.7 18.9 20.2 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 23.7 26.2 25.2 4.1 96.2 93.1 20.9 22.1 22.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 11.2 13.8 20.7 3.1 87.8 86.1 8.3 9.4 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 23.1 25.1 23.7 3.3 92.0 88.4 20.0 22.1 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 5 95 100 22.8 24.2 21.9 3.2 89.3 87.0 20.3 22.0 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 23.1 24.5 22.4 3.1 88.3 85.9 20.5 22.0 22.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 22.5 23.5 21.4 3.1 88.0 85.7 19.3 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 23.3 24.5 21.6 3.1 86.4 86.0 20.3 21.5 22.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 6 94 100 23.5 26.2 23.7 3.6 93.3 88.6 20.7 22.2 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 23.5 24.4 23.1 3.0 88.7 86.6 20.6 21.7 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 23.6 24.1 22.0 3.0 85.8 85.2 21.1 22.2 22.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 23.4 26.6 25.2 4.4 97.6 94.3 20.4 21.5 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 22.5 24.6 21.3 3.4 91.2 87.5 19.5 21.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 23.6 26.0 25.2 4.0 95.0 92.1 20.5 22.2 23.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 18.0 20.5 18.9 3.2 91.4 87.3 14.2 16.0 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 23.1 25.8 24.5 3.4 93.2 89.2 20.8 22.4 22.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 23.9 26.1 25.0 4.1 96.7 93.5 20.6 22.3 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 23.6 26.7 25.0 3.8 94.6 90.7 20.5 22.5 23.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 5 95 100 22.8 25.7 23.3 3.5 92.7 88.4 20.2 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 23.2 25.2 23.3 3.4 93.4 89.7 20.5 22.3 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 22.7 24.4 20.7 3.2 89.5 87.1 19.1 20.5 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 23.5 26.0 24.2 3.7 94.7 91.3 20.9 22.2 22.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 23.9 24.2 22.1 2.7 86.3 84.0 20.5 21.8 22.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 4 96 100 17.3 21.0 20.6 3.5 91.9 88.0 14.0 16.0 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 23.7 26.3 25.2 3.9 94.8 92.0 21.0 22.3 23.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------