***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 22.6 0.7 60.4 63.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 23.8 24.6 22.8 0.9 68.2 66.1 22.1 23.6 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 24.0 24.0 22.6 0.6 61.0 61.9 22.1 23.7 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.5 20.4 0.3 57.5 58.4 15.1 16.0 16.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 23.9 23.8 20.7 0.3 53.2 57.9 22.5 23.7 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.8 18.3 0.3 56.4 56.1 21.2 21.7 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 23.5 24.0 22.8 1.0 68.1 66.4 21.4 23.2 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.5 18.8 0.3 54.8 56.4 10.8 11.2 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.2 21.2 0.4 55.8 58.6 21.8 23.0 23.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 23.0 22.8 19.7 0.3 55.7 57.6 22.0 22.6 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 23.2 23.0 20.2 0.3 53.4 57.2 22.1 22.8 23.5 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.1 19.6 0.2 52.5 56.1 21.3 22.1 22.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 23.3 23.2 19.3 0.3 55.4 56.2 22.4 23.0 23.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 23.8 23.9 21.0 0.5 58.2 59.3 22.0 23.6 24.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 24.5 24.5 21.2 0.5 71.0 62.5 22.4 23.2 24.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 23.7 23.9 19.8 0.3 54.7 56.3 22.8 23.3 24.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 23.5 24.0 22.7 1.1 71.0 68.0 21.2 22.5 23.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 22.5 22.6 19.0 0.4 58.9 58.3 21.6 22.1 23.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 23.5 24.1 22.8 0.8 66.5 64.7 21.7 23.3 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.8 16.7 0.3 58.9 57.3 16.8 17.6 18.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 23.7 23.5 22.1 0.5 57.3 59.7 22.0 23.4 24.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 24.3 24.5 22.6 0.9 69.4 66.2 21.7 23.2 24.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 23.8 24.0 22.5 0.7 62.6 62.4 22.3 23.6 24.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.4 20.9 0.5 58.3 59.3 21.6 23.1 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 23.7 23.9 21.1 0.5 58.0 61.3 21.9 23.5 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 22.5 22.3 18.9 0.3 54.9 56.7 21.9 22.2 22.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 23.6 23.7 21.9 0.7 61.5 63.5 21.9 23.4 23.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 23.7 24.0 20.7 0.3 61.6 57.9 22.3 23.2 24.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 17.7 17.6 18.0 0.4 59.0 58.6 16.7 17.4 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 23.5 24.1 22.9 0.8 65.8 65.0 21.6 23.3 24.1 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------