***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.05.2012.-27.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 13.3 -0.1 50.2 48.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.4 13.4 0.0 51.7 49.9 11.3 12.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 12.8 14.2 13.1 -0.1 48.8 47.9 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 7.0 8.5 11.2 -0.2 43.3 46.4 7.7 8.9 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 9.7 10.7 10.9 -0.2 41.6 46.1 10.0 11.2 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.8 9.2 -0.1 48.3 48.5 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.8 12.6 13.4 0.0 50.1 49.6 11.0 12.6 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 3.4 4.1 9.2 -0.1 43.8 47.7 3.1 4.5 5.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 10.5 11.8 11.3 -0.2 43.7 46.7 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 10.6 11.7 9.9 -0.1 43.2 47.4 10.7 11.9 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.5 10.4 -0.2 44.5 47.4 10.9 11.8 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 8.3 9.1 10.0 -0.2 44.4 47.4 8.7 9.5 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 10.0 10.8 9.5 -0.3 45.8 46.5 10.2 11.2 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 11.2 12.0 11.3 -0.3 42.8 46.1 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.3 11.8 -0.1 46.4 49.0 11.8 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.9 11.7 10.1 -0.2 44.1 46.9 10.8 12.1 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.0 13.3 0.1 50.1 50.8 11.1 13.0 13.5 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.8 9.8 9.2 -0.2 43.5 47.1 9.4 10.3 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.5 13.4 0.0 51.1 49.7 10.6 12.4 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.2 6.0 7.3 -0.1 41.6 47.6 5.7 6.2 7.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 10.4 11.4 12.3 -0.2 44.5 46.7 10.5 11.8 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 10.8 12.1 13.2 0.1 49.9 50.4 10.1 12.1 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 10.7 12.0 13.0 -0.1 49.1 48.8 10.5 12.2 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.7 11.3 11.1 -0.2 44.5 46.9 10.7 11.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 10.9 12.1 11.8 -0.2 44.3 47.3 10.6 12.5 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.2 9.6 -0.3 46.3 46.8 9.7 10.4 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.4 12.5 -0.2 49.0 48.1 11.0 12.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 9.6 10.5 11.4 -0.2 45.4 47.3 10.1 10.7 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.5 8.5 8.4 -0.2 41.7 46.9 7.3 9.0 9.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.9 13.5 0.0 51.5 49.4 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------