***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.05.2012.-20.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.3 0.0 50.1 51.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 10.4 12.6 12.4 0.1 58.4 53.3 10.3 12.0 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 11.9 13.6 12.1 -0.1 50.6 50.4 12.4 13.6 14.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.0 8.9 10.1 -0.2 49.7 48.4 7.5 8.9 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 8.9 9.5 9.9 -0.2 48.9 48.2 9.1 9.5 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.2 8.0 -0.1 48.3 50.3 8.5 9.2 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 10.3 12.2 12.4 0.2 58.2 53.7 10.4 11.8 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 4.8 4.1 8.0 -0.3 44.7 48.1 3.4 4.4 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 9.8 11.0 10.3 -0.2 50.8 49.3 10.5 11.0 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.9 11.2 8.8 -0.2 47.7 48.9 10.1 11.2 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 9.7 10.8 9.3 -0.2 48.7 48.1 9.9 10.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.9 8.8 8.8 -0.3 45.9 47.6 8.0 9.2 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 9.2 10.3 8.4 -0.3 46.2 48.2 9.6 10.4 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 10.4 11.4 10.1 -0.4 43.4 46.3 10.8 11.6 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.5 10.8 0.0 52.2 51.6 10.8 11.4 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.1 9.0 -0.3 46.2 47.9 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 10.5 13.0 12.3 0.2 59.6 53.9 10.8 12.0 13.4 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 8.4 9.5 8.1 -0.3 44.8 48.1 8.0 9.6 10.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 10.4 12.6 12.3 0.1 56.8 52.3 10.6 12.0 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 5.1 6.1 -0.3 43.4 47.4 4.3 5.5 6.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 9.7 11.0 11.4 -0.1 49.0 49.7 10.3 11.2 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 10.1 12.0 12.0 0.1 57.5 52.0 9.7 11.2 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.1 11.8 -0.1 51.2 50.3 10.4 11.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.1 10.9 10.0 -0.3 45.7 48.1 9.9 11.3 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.6 10.8 -0.1 48.3 50.5 10.2 11.6 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.2 8.4 -0.3 45.7 46.8 8.7 10.3 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.8 11.6 0.0 49.2 51.4 10.8 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.9 9.8 10.3 -0.2 49.4 48.6 8.8 9.8 10.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.8 8.2 7.2 -0.3 43.2 47.0 7.8 8.4 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 10.4 12.2 12.4 0.1 55.0 52.5 10.7 11.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------