***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.05.2012.-13.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 11.5 0.3 52.6 57.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.2 11.6 0.5 57.4 59.6 9.6 10.8 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.6 11.3 0.4 53.4 58.0 10.4 12.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 6.8 6.9 9.4 0.2 53.2 54.6 5.7 6.1 8.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.6 9.2 0.2 53.7 54.1 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.2 7.4 0.3 53.5 55.4 6.6 7.6 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.8 10.7 11.6 0.4 55.0 59.2 9.2 10.3 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.9 2.9 7.4 0.2 53.4 53.5 1.7 2.7 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.8 9.6 0.2 52.6 54.4 8.7 9.6 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.7 8.1 0.2 52.1 53.5 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.5 8.6 0.2 51.6 54.1 8.0 9.3 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.8 8.2 0.2 54.0 54.2 6.8 7.4 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.0 7.8 0.2 52.4 54.8 7.8 8.8 10.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.3 9.5 0.3 53.2 56.3 9.2 9.8 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 10.8 10.6 10.1 0.3 54.6 56.2 9.4 10.4 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.7 8.4 0.3 52.5 54.8 8.9 9.6 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.3 11.5 0.5 56.5 60.4 9.6 10.8 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.6 7.5 0.2 50.8 54.6 6.4 8.5 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.9 11.5 0.4 58.6 59.3 9.3 10.6 11.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 4.0 5.6 0.1 50.9 52.9 3.4 3.9 5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 9.9 9.7 10.6 0.2 53.2 55.6 8.3 9.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 10.9 10.6 11.3 0.5 58.3 59.9 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 10.6 10.5 11.1 0.4 57.7 58.3 9.6 10.3 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.2 10.1 9.3 0.3 54.0 56.6 8.7 9.9 11.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 10.1 0.2 51.9 55.9 8.9 9.9 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.4 8.6 7.8 0.2 51.8 54.2 7.7 8.4 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 11.2 10.8 10.8 0.3 52.1 56.9 9.4 10.7 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.6 8.6 9.6 0.3 53.6 55.1 7.9 8.2 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.2 6.7 0.2 50.4 54.0 6.0 7.2 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.6 11.6 0.4 55.9 59.1 9.4 10.5 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------