***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.04.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.04.2012.-06.05.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 14.4 3.4 96.6 95.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 11.6 13.5 14.2 3.4 96.6 95.9 8.7 9.6 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 12.9 15.4 13.9 3.1 96.2 95.9 10.4 11.6 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 7.6 9.3 10.9 2.5 93.2 91.5 5.0 6.3 7.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 9.8 11.5 10.8 2.1 92.6 89.6 7.3 8.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 8.2 9.3 8.7 2.5 95.1 92.1 5.8 7.0 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 11.0 12.7 14.0 3.2 95.7 95.5 8.9 10.1 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 3.8 5.5 9.2 2.7 96.9 95.4 0.9 1.7 3.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 3 97 100 10.4 12.1 11.2 2.1 92.7 90.7 7.7 8.4 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 10.4 11.5 9.8 2.4 94.0 93.1 8.0 8.6 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 9.7 10.8 10.3 2.2 94.4 91.9 7.4 8.4 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 8.3 9.4 9.5 2.4 94.8 92.4 6.1 6.8 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 8.7 9.1 8.1 1.1 77.7 74.9 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 10.9 11.9 11.7 2.4 94.4 93.3 8.3 9.5 10.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 2 98 100 11.1 12.1 12.0 2.4 93.6 92.0 8.3 9.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 10.7 12.1 9.3 1.6 87.2 83.7 8.3 9.4 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 11.2 12.5 13.8 3.3 96.4 95.2 9.5 10.0 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 7.9 8.5 8.8 2.2 93.9 93.0 5.8 6.5 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.5 14.1 3.3 96.9 95.9 8.8 10.0 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 5.1 6.8 6.8 2.4 96.2 94.0 2.8 3.5 4.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 10.7 11.9 13.1 2.7 94.0 93.5 7.7 8.7 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 10.4 11.7 13.7 3.1 96.7 95.0 8.6 9.3 10.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 10.8 12.0 13.7 3.2 96.6 95.9 8.4 9.3 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 10.0 11.0 11.3 2.5 95.0 94.2 8.0 9.1 9.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 11.3 13.5 13.0 3.1 95.1 94.1 8.3 9.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 8.7 9.0 7.8 1.2 78.9 75.8 6.9 7.9 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 12.2 15.2 13.5 3.1 95.0 93.8 8.6 9.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 8.9 10.2 11.1 2.3 92.7 89.8 6.7 7.7 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 8.0 10.0 8.0 2.2 96.2 94.2 5.4 6.5 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 11.6 13.9 14.3 3.3 96.6 96.1 8.7 10.3 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------