***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 51.3 51.1 72.2 105.1 56.9 53.9 37.6 46.3 53.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 29.2 40.2 61.1 95.8 52.8 47.7 28.4 38.7 53.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 31.2 52.7 70.6 102.7 56.7 53.3 36.4 46.6 61.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 69.6 62.8 78.5 99.2 56.4 50.5 50.3 60.4 70.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 54.3 61.1 79.0 105.1 60.5 54.6 35.8 47.0 66.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 60.9 54.7 82.5 94.7 49.7 46.3 42.0 54.8 66.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 24.3 32.2 60.6 94.5 48.7 46.3 22.3 32.6 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 75.2 97.6 84.1 98.0 54.2 48.4 77.6 92.9 103.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 52.6 52.6 80.2 103.6 59.9 54.0 38.3 45.5 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 44.9 62.1 89.6 101.0 58.7 51.3 43.0 55.3 76.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 49.8 54.0 74.5 101.2 57.3 51.5 34.9 44.1 60.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 44.0 55.2 70.6 95.5 50.5 47.1 44.2 55.0 59.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 35.2 41.3 76.0 92.8 47.0 45.4 35.3 42.9 59.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 66.0 62.8 89.0 100.0 56.2 51.9 44.7 58.2 70.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 49.4 46.3 69.1 92.7 51.2 46.8 35.8 46.2 55.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 51.0 47.2 73.1 95.9 50.3 48.0 39.9 47.1 58.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 26.0 36.7 57.1 90.3 47.7 43.9 23.6 40.5 54.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 64.2 66.2 96.8 103.3 59.6 53.4 43.9 53.7 81.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 37.2 61.4 63.0 97.4 55.6 49.6 37.6 50.8 69.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 66.5 65.7 95.8 104.4 58.5 53.6 46.6 62.0 71.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 52.3 52.7 77.2 106.4 60.6 55.8 36.3 49.1 56.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 28.7 36.4 60.6 92.3 50.1 46.2 25.3 36.3 53.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 48.2 48.0 66.5 98.9 57.4 51.6 33.2 41.2 60.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 60.8 60.6 87.4 103.6 58.7 54.1 42.3 53.4 71.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 35.3 55.8 82.8 105.2 59.6 53.7 30.9 48.8 64.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 52.8 46.1 72.2 93.7 47.3 46.7 40.6 49.8 57.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 38.8 55.1 76.4 102.5 56.1 51.9 38.1 50.9 67.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 52.3 49.3 73.8 95.3 54.2 48.5 36.5 48.0 54.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 89.2 89.1 98.1 105.4 60.0 54.6 72.9 83.1 90.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 27.4 39.0 63.4 97.5 52.1 49.0 27.2 37.1 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------