***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 8.1 14.8 15.2 83.1 52.4 44.8 12.4 14.5 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 12.7 9.8 13.8 80.6 50.9 45.0 5.0 9.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.9 11.7 16.2 90.5 56.8 48.8 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.4 19.0 17.7 90.0 53.3 49.3 9.9 14.7 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.2 19.1 19.0 102.6 60.1 54.2 11.7 14.7 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 14.5 15.6 22.1 99.9 57.4 52.4 6.0 12.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.9 9.8 13.7 77.3 47.9 42.8 3.4 10.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 24.2 27.9 21.9 103.3 59.2 52.2 13.0 20.5 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.2 20.2 105.0 59.8 54.2 5.4 11.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.0 23.2 104.6 59.6 52.7 11.5 14.8 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.4 15.7 18.3 105.6 62.5 55.2 5.1 12.5 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.1 17.8 99.4 59.5 51.9 8.1 15.3 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.7 10.6 19.0 96.4 56.0 50.4 5.4 9.4 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 16.1 15.1 20.5 88.3 51.9 46.4 9.5 14.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.1 9.8 16.1 87.1 52.2 47.6 5.9 8.9 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.3 17.9 97.8 58.7 52.3 5.8 10.8 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.5 12.7 73.7 48.7 41.8 4.3 6.6 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.5 13.5 25.1 104.2 58.5 51.1 7.8 11.9 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.1 9.8 14.1 82.0 51.8 45.8 4.8 9.2 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.9 19.1 24.9 109.0 62.2 52.9 8.4 14.7 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.7 15.0 18.3 98.8 59.4 52.7 7.2 9.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.8 9.2 13.8 78.4 49.4 43.3 5.6 9.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.4 9.0 14.4 81.4 52.1 45.6 6.1 8.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 16.4 14.8 21.1 96.5 56.4 49.0 7.4 12.7 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.4 9.7 17.5 84.7 50.6 46.2 6.6 9.6 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 13.8 14.2 18.5 102.8 60.0 51.8 7.1 10.7 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.7 14.2 16.1 80.6 49.4 44.1 5.0 14.6 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.5 18.0 92.4 54.1 50.8 9.4 13.6 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 26.3 25.1 24.6 104.3 59.4 51.3 14.3 21.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.6 11.4 14.2 81.6 51.4 45.3 5.9 10.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------