***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.1 15.9 95.3 58.1 47.8 5.9 7.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.3 12.8 76.4 48.2 42.0 4.0 7.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.8 15.2 90.3 55.6 48.0 4.5 8.9 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.7 15.6 18.3 92.1 56.4 47.9 4.5 12.2 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.3 11.5 17.3 91.2 56.8 47.8 3.2 6.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 6.0 9.2 18.6 79.7 49.1 42.2 7.3 9.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.6 5.4 12.3 73.8 48.2 40.7 2.8 6.0 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 11.4 18.4 18.7 88.4 53.8 46.4 11.9 16.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.0 10.2 18.1 90.9 56.5 47.9 4.2 9.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 7.0 14.5 20.1 88.7 55.4 47.3 9.1 12.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 12.0 16.0 89.8 57.5 47.0 2.6 6.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.7 15.8 85.7 53.4 45.4 2.9 7.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 2.9 5.4 17.3 79.7 50.9 42.9 3.0 5.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.6 14.7 18.9 82.3 54.8 46.7 3.7 10.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.0 6.8 17.1 89.8 57.8 48.0 1.5 4.1 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.0 11.7 16.9 85.7 54.4 45.6 8.0 9.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.2 6.9 11.8 69.1 46.2 39.4 4.0 7.2 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.4 22.4 91.1 57.2 49.5 7.6 13.2 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.2 8.8 13.3 78.9 49.3 43.5 4.1 9.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.4 10.9 21.6 91.1 55.5 49.0 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.7 17.2 96.8 59.8 49.8 2.0 8.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 13.9 9.4 12.2 67.6 46.6 40.0 4.1 11.5 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.2 12.4 13.9 81.7 51.9 45.7 3.6 11.4 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.3 15.0 19.5 89.3 56.7 48.9 9.1 13.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.1 8.0 17.8 92.7 55.9 48.2 2.4 5.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.1 6.5 16.7 82.2 52.4 44.4 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 5.7 11.0 16.5 90.1 55.2 46.8 5.2 10.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 3.7 7.5 18.1 91.0 55.8 48.1 4.6 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 17.8 19.6 22.3 92.1 57.1 49.9 10.3 15.5 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.2 11.2 13.6 81.5 51.3 43.9 5.8 11.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------