***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.9 13.4 17.0 97.6 58.3 48.7 8.3 10.3 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.8 14.2 90.7 53.6 45.8 3.7 7.5 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.3 12.4 16.5 89.9 55.6 46.8 5.2 11.4 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 17.6 20.2 20.9 99.0 59.6 47.6 8.2 14.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 6.3 15.7 20.7 100.3 61.0 50.4 3.8 12.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.2 17.0 23.3 100.5 60.0 50.7 7.2 12.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.7 10.1 15.0 97.1 57.1 47.2 4.8 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 26.9 27.7 21.5 96.9 58.2 48.9 14.9 22.6 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.9 20.6 97.6 57.9 50.3 5.0 10.5 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.9 17.3 23.0 100.7 59.6 50.7 10.8 13.9 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 5.5 12.2 20.3 96.2 58.3 47.5 6.3 10.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.9 19.2 95.5 58.0 48.5 7.0 13.9 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.0 23.1 102.2 59.1 51.7 6.9 10.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 8.2 14.0 20.5 90.2 54.2 46.9 7.1 12.4 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.7 11.9 19.3 96.0 59.4 47.8 5.0 9.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 6.3 14.5 20.6 95.7 57.8 47.7 5.5 12.4 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 5.0 11.3 13.6 89.5 56.3 44.0 4.3 8.2 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 18.0 17.6 23.1 98.7 57.8 49.8 8.7 15.6 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 18.6 16.5 14.4 89.0 52.2 46.1 11.4 16.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 16.5 19.0 25.8 107.2 61.0 53.5 6.2 14.2 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 18.5 19.2 19.6 99.5 58.9 50.8 4.3 15.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.8 7.1 12.7 79.5 49.7 42.6 5.8 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.4 15.7 89.0 54.6 46.6 6.8 8.4 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 21.3 18.8 20.9 95.3 57.1 48.9 7.6 17.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.3 14.7 20.0 96.2 57.0 46.1 6.3 12.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.9 20.7 99.3 55.6 50.4 5.0 10.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 6.9 13.6 18.2 95.7 57.0 45.9 6.5 12.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.6 14.9 19.7 96.7 60.0 47.7 6.7 12.6 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.7 19.6 24.4 102.0 58.7 51.1 12.5 18.0 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.7 10.9 14.9 91.6 54.1 46.4 3.3 9.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------