***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 6.9 9.7 24.0 148.0 76.1 68.2 1.2 2.4 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 7.1 8.3 20.2 143.1 73.7 64.8 1.4 4.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 10.9 13.5 22.7 145.2 74.2 66.3 2.9 4.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 11.0 13.4 21.6 116.9 65.5 61.3 7.5 9.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 6.9 8.8 22.1 129.4 70.6 63.2 4.3 5.9 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.5 18.5 100.0 58.7 53.8 4.2 8.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 5.3 8.7 19.6 137.2 71.5 63.3 1.5 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 19.4 20.5 22.0 103.3 60.3 54.8 12.8 17.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 7.9 12.6 21.3 124.2 70.5 61.1 5.2 6.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 12.9 16.0 23.3 111.6 66.0 57.3 3.7 11.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 7.6 8.4 20.0 115.8 66.9 59.5 3.7 6.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 9.2 11.9 17.9 102.3 60.2 54.6 3.7 7.1 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 9.6 8.8 16.5 92.8 55.4 50.5 6.1 8.0 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 13.6 16.6 29.1 144.8 77.2 67.8 6.0 9.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.4 16.5 98.0 59.7 54.3 4.5 8.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 7.2 8.9 17.6 106.5 63.1 56.9 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 7.2 7.0 19.0 138.2 72.4 62.6 1.6 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 14.0 21.3 26.1 121.5 69.6 61.2 3.2 12.5 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 10.2 12.2 21.1 147.3 75.4 66.1 2.3 5.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 11.2 10.9 23.5 110.0 63.4 57.8 6.5 9.4 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 8.5 9.7 22.2 133.6 73.7 63.9 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 8.3 10.0 21.9 156.5 77.2 66.1 2.6 5.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 10.1 12.4 22.5 150.9 76.7 67.8 2.9 6.7 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 87 13 100 8.4 16.3 25.9 138.1 74.3 65.0 4.7 7.1 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 10.5 12.2 27.6 151.8 78.2 68.7 1.4 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 9.1 7.7 16.3 91.1 54.4 50.7 3.3 7.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 9.0 10.8 25.7 148.3 76.6 68.4 2.6 5.9 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.6 18.0 101.5 60.7 56.4 4.1 5.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 19.9 27.1 26.8 125.9 70.6 62.6 9.1 18.0 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 6.0 6.5 20.8 141.1 72.5 64.7 1.3 4.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------