***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 21.8 23.2 21.1 -0.1 49.0 48.2 21.4 23.2 23.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 21.8 24.0 21.4 0.2 55.4 52.9 21.8 23.4 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 21.8 23.3 21.2 -0.2 46.0 47.2 21.9 23.5 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 14.5 15.6 18.4 -0.1 47.1 49.1 14.8 15.7 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 21.8 22.3 18.9 -0.6 36.0 41.8 22.2 23.4 24.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 20.4 21.3 16.9 -0.5 41.0 43.5 21.0 21.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 21.7 23.3 21.3 0.2 54.9 52.9 21.2 23.0 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 9.4 10.6 16.8 -0.9 34.0 38.5 10.5 10.8 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 21.2 21.7 19.5 -0.6 36.8 42.2 21.5 22.6 23.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 21.2 21.8 17.8 -0.8 35.6 39.9 21.8 22.3 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 21.5 22.3 18.9 -0.6 37.5 42.9 21.9 22.6 23.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 20.6 21.5 18.1 -0.5 40.6 44.1 21.1 21.7 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 21.6 22.6 18.2 -0.4 44.4 45.7 22.0 22.8 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 21.8 21.8 18.9 -1.0 32.1 36.8 21.8 23.3 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 23.6 23.5 20.4 0.4 59.7 56.0 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 22.0 23.0 18.6 -0.3 43.5 46.6 22.5 23.1 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 22.9 23.4 21.2 0.3 57.9 53.7 20.9 22.5 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 20.6 21.1 17.0 -1.1 31.3 36.5 21.4 22.0 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.4 23.1 21.3 0.1 53.2 51.0 21.4 22.8 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 15.8 16.2 14.3 -1.5 24.2 31.0 16.6 17.3 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 21.4 22.1 20.3 -0.6 35.8 41.6 21.8 23.2 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 21.7 22.8 20.6 -0.2 49.1 47.3 21.5 23.0 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 21.7 23.3 21.0 -0.1 49.8 48.2 22.1 23.3 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 21.2 21.5 18.9 -0.9 33.7 38.5 21.5 22.8 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 21.7 22.0 19.3 -0.5 38.6 43.0 21.5 23.3 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 20.8 22.0 17.7 -0.1 51.0 49.7 21.4 21.9 22.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 21.6 23.1 20.2 -0.3 44.3 45.6 21.6 23.2 23.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 21.9 22.9 19.2 0.1 52.3 52.0 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 15.5 15.9 15.9 -1.3 26.4 33.0 16.5 17.1 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 21.6 23.4 21.3 0.1 52.6 51.7 21.3 23.2 24.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------