***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 25.5 24.8 24.0 1.6 68.7 62.6 22.6 24.2 24.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 25.3 25.5 24.3 2.1 73.5 66.3 23.3 24.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 25.2 25.6 24.3 1.6 68.6 62.3 22.8 24.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.2 18.4 21.7 1.4 68.4 61.1 15.1 16.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 25.0 25.3 21.8 1.0 61.5 57.6 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 23.1 24.0 19.7 1.1 62.5 57.4 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 25.0 25.4 24.3 2.0 73.4 65.7 22.8 23.7 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 13.0 12.9 20.0 0.9 60.3 57.0 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.5 22.1 1.0 61.1 57.6 21.4 24.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 24.4 24.6 20.8 0.9 61.0 57.1 21.8 24.1 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.8 21.7 1.2 64.4 58.8 22.2 24.2 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.5 21.4 1.3 65.2 59.9 21.3 22.7 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 24.0 24.9 20.6 1.3 65.2 59.4 22.5 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 24.8 24.6 21.6 0.8 58.8 57.5 22.4 24.5 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 25.0 26.3 22.9 1.8 75.3 64.3 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 24.7 25.8 21.4 1.4 67.2 60.3 23.0 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 24.7 25.0 24.2 2.0 73.3 66.2 22.9 23.6 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 23.5 23.9 20.2 0.8 59.5 56.1 21.5 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 24.9 25.1 24.3 2.0 72.5 65.5 22.8 23.8 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.6 17.3 0.4 55.1 53.6 16.9 18.2 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.5 23.1 1.1 61.8 58.3 22.3 24.2 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 25.2 25.2 23.6 1.7 70.5 64.2 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 25.3 25.3 24.1 1.7 69.7 63.6 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 24.1 24.2 21.8 1.0 60.9 57.7 21.6 23.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 24.6 24.8 22.0 1.2 64.9 59.6 22.8 24.1 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 23.3 24.5 20.9 1.6 71.7 62.6 21.8 23.0 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 24.3 25.1 23.1 1.4 67.3 61.4 22.8 23.8 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 24.4 26.0 22.1 1.6 71.8 62.5 22.3 23.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.8 19.0 0.6 56.8 54.3 16.9 18.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 25.4 25.7 24.3 2.0 72.6 65.4 23.1 24.0 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------