***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 24.8 24.8 22.4 0.9 58.5 58.2 23.0 24.5 25.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 25.1 26.2 22.8 1.5 68.0 61.9 22.6 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 24.8 25.1 22.8 1.0 61.6 58.8 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.8 20.1 0.8 60.5 58.3 15.4 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.7 20.2 0.4 55.4 53.5 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 23.6 23.5 17.8 0.3 51.9 51.3 21.6 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 24.3 25.5 22.8 1.4 66.5 61.5 22.7 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.1 18.2 0.1 52.3 50.7 11.3 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.6 20.6 0.5 53.8 53.6 22.1 24.3 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 24.4 24.2 19.2 0.3 53.4 52.2 22.2 23.9 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.6 20.0 0.5 56.3 53.7 22.4 24.3 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 23.6 23.6 19.5 0.5 55.2 53.3 21.7 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 24.6 24.5 18.7 0.4 53.3 52.6 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 25.0 24.9 20.2 0.3 54.0 52.6 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.6 21.2 1.3 64.5 62.3 22.3 25.1 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.1 19.6 0.6 57.5 55.0 23.5 24.9 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 23.8 25.7 22.7 1.5 68.0 62.4 21.8 23.4 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 23.8 23.6 18.6 0.2 51.1 51.2 22.0 23.3 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 24.2 25.4 22.8 1.4 65.8 60.9 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 18.9 18.3 15.5 -0.3 48.7 46.8 17.2 18.5 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.8 21.5 0.5 55.8 54.5 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 25.0 25.9 22.2 1.1 62.7 58.9 21.9 24.7 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 24.8 25.5 22.5 1.1 62.0 58.8 22.1 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 24.1 23.8 20.3 0.4 54.9 53.4 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.8 20.4 0.6 55.8 55.6 22.5 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 23.7 23.9 18.8 0.6 56.6 54.9 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 24.6 24.4 21.5 0.8 57.3 56.9 22.7 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 25.0 25.4 20.4 1.0 62.2 59.6 22.0 24.5 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.5 17.4 -0.1 49.3 48.7 16.7 18.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 24.8 25.5 22.8 1.4 65.9 61.1 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------