***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 20.0 20.2 19.3 -0.9 34.2 41.6 20.1 22.4 24.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 20.1 21.4 19.8 -0.5 40.9 44.9 20.4 22.5 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 20.1 20.8 19.4 -1.0 35.5 41.0 20.5 21.9 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 13.2 13.0 16.1 -1.3 30.9 38.0 13.2 15.0 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 20.3 20.3 16.8 -1.7 26.6 35.2 20.5 22.1 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 18.9 18.7 14.5 -1.8 28.3 34.7 19.1 20.8 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 19.9 20.7 19.7 -0.5 41.4 45.0 19.9 22.0 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 7.5 7.8 14.5 -2.1 25.0 32.9 8.1 10.4 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 19.4 19.3 17.6 -1.6 27.2 36.1 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 19.6 19.7 15.6 -1.9 26.8 34.4 19.8 21.1 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 19.3 20.1 16.8 -1.8 26.6 34.9 20.2 21.1 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 75 25 0 100 18.8 19.0 15.8 -1.7 26.3 35.0 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 19.4 19.8 16.1 -1.6 27.3 35.7 20.1 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 20.3 20.4 17.2 -1.7 27.5 35.4 20.7 22.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 20.4 21.1 18.4 -0.8 37.4 41.5 21.0 21.8 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 20.3 20.6 16.4 -1.6 27.7 35.7 20.6 21.8 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 19.6 20.8 19.7 -0.3 42.2 46.4 20.0 21.7 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 18.9 19.6 14.8 -2.1 25.9 33.2 19.7 20.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 20.0 20.9 19.7 -0.6 40.0 43.9 20.0 21.9 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 81 19 0 100 13.9 13.8 12.2 -2.5 22.7 30.5 14.7 16.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 19.7 19.8 18.5 -1.5 28.6 36.8 20.3 21.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 20.2 21.0 19.1 -0.7 37.7 42.6 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 20.6 21.0 19.5 -0.7 38.9 42.8 20.4 22.4 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 19.6 19.8 17.1 -1.7 28.1 35.4 20.0 21.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 19.8 19.8 17.5 -1.4 29.2 37.4 20.0 22.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 19.1 19.3 15.3 -1.4 30.5 37.2 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 19.8 20.1 18.5 -1.1 31.9 40.0 20.2 21.9 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 20.3 20.8 16.9 -1.2 32.4 38.6 20.8 22.1 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 79 21 0 100 13.7 13.8 13.8 -2.3 23.8 31.6 14.5 15.5 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 20.0 21.0 19.7 -0.6 40.0 44.0 19.9 21.9 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------