***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 72 28 0 100 19.9 20.9 18.5 -2.1 28.0 28.2 21.6 22.4 23.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 20.0 20.0 18.5 -2.2 25.6 27.8 20.6 22.7 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 19.7 20.0 18.4 -2.5 25.3 26.1 20.8 22.7 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.7 12.6 15.9 -1.5 31.1 33.8 12.9 14.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 20.0 19.8 16.8 -2.3 25.8 27.1 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 18.4 19.0 15.4 -1.5 34.1 35.2 18.9 19.8 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 19.7 20.0 18.5 -2.1 27.3 29.3 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 73 27 0 100 6.8 7.0 14.5 -2.6 23.5 25.4 8.2 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 19.4 19.6 17.7 -2.3 26.6 26.9 20.0 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 19.7 19.7 15.7 -2.6 25.0 25.6 20.3 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 19.7 20.0 17.3 -2.2 26.6 28.4 20.4 21.2 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 18.8 18.8 16.0 -2.0 28.7 30.4 19.3 20.6 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 19.7 20.5 17.5 -1.5 33.8 35.6 20.4 21.0 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 93 7 0 100 18.8 18.8 16.4 -3.5 16.6 18.9 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 22.4 20.3 19.0 -0.8 38.3 40.6 19.7 22.0 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 20.3 20.5 17.2 -1.6 32.7 34.0 20.5 21.6 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 19.3 19.5 18.2 -2.2 26.2 27.9 20.2 21.7 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 79 21 0 100 18.6 18.3 14.3 -3.2 18.8 21.2 19.7 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 19.6 19.4 18.3 -2.4 24.7 26.2 20.3 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 13.2 12.8 12.0 -3.5 16.7 18.8 14.3 15.7 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 19.3 19.0 18.2 -2.6 24.1 24.8 21.0 21.8 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 84 16 0 100 19.2 19.1 17.6 -2.8 19.8 21.9 20.9 22.5 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 20.1 19.7 18.1 -2.6 24.3 25.1 20.5 22.8 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 18.9 18.8 16.6 -3.2 19.6 21.0 20.4 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 19.5 19.0 17.2 -2.4 23.4 25.7 20.9 22.2 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 20.8 19.6 15.8 -1.3 36.7 38.1 19.3 20.0 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 19.5 19.2 17.8 -2.4 24.5 26.3 20.6 21.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 22.4 20.6 17.3 -1.1 35.5 37.9 20.2 21.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 13.1 12.8 13.4 -3.5 16.8 19.1 14.4 15.8 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 19.9 19.9 18.5 -2.2 26.3 27.9 20.5 22.3 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------