***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 10.1 10.5 11.0 -0.6 35.5 38.2 10.4 10.8 11.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 10.0 10.4 10.9 -0.4 39.6 41.8 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 11.5 12.2 11.1 -0.5 37.3 38.8 12.0 12.4 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.6 6.6 8.4 -0.6 35.3 38.3 6.4 7.6 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 8.5 8.5 8.5 -0.8 24.2 31.8 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 7.3 7.9 6.4 -0.5 36.4 38.9 7.7 8.3 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 10.1 10.4 11.0 -0.3 42.4 43.1 10.2 10.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 71 29 0 100 2.1 1.9 5.9 -1.0 19.2 28.5 2.7 3.1 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 9.3 9.5 8.8 -0.7 27.2 34.3 9.6 10.0 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 9.5 9.3 7.0 -0.8 22.5 31.2 9.4 10.2 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 9.0 9.1 7.9 -0.7 26.2 33.5 9.3 9.5 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 7.3 7.4 7.0 -0.8 25.8 32.7 7.7 8.3 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 8.6 9.0 6.9 -0.6 32.3 36.9 9.0 9.3 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 9.9 9.8 8.5 -0.7 26.5 32.9 10.0 10.9 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.0 10.0 -0.2 48.0 46.7 10.3 11.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 9.7 9.9 7.6 -0.6 31.8 36.8 9.9 10.6 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 10.6 10.6 10.7 -0.4 39.6 42.1 10.5 11.2 11.8 29 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 7.6 7.5 6.3 -0.8 23.1 31.1 7.9 8.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.1 10.6 10.9 -0.4 39.5 41.2 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 4.0 3.9 4.1 -1.1 17.5 26.6 4.2 4.7 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 9.4 9.5 10.1 -0.7 29.6 34.8 9.5 10.1 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 9.5 9.8 10.5 -0.5 37.1 39.6 9.7 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 9.8 10.2 10.7 -0.4 39.5 40.5 10.1 10.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 9.5 9.5 8.5 -0.7 28.1 34.2 9.8 10.2 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 9.7 9.7 9.7 -0.8 27.2 33.0 9.9 10.6 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 8.2 8.5 6.4 -0.6 31.5 36.0 8.5 9.2 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 9.9 10.2 10.4 -0.7 32.7 36.6 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.8 8.9 -0.3 41.6 43.0 8.5 8.9 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 6.1 6.3 5.5 -0.9 19.9 28.8 7.1 7.4 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 10.2 10.5 11.1 -0.4 39.7 41.3 10.4 10.7 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------