***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2019.-26.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.0 13.7 0.8 65.3 59.3 11.1 12.3 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 12.7 12.9 13.6 1.0 67.8 61.7 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 14.9 14.9 13.7 0.9 67.9 61.0 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.9 10.1 11.0 0.8 65.9 59.8 7.6 8.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.4 10.8 0.5 60.7 57.0 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.0 10.4 8.9 0.7 62.9 58.9 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.1 12.9 13.7 1.1 67.3 62.2 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.7 8.3 0.3 56.1 54.6 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.3 11.0 0.5 60.0 57.4 11.0 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.1 9.3 0.4 57.8 55.9 11.0 11.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.9 12.0 10.1 0.5 60.4 57.0 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.1 9.2 0.5 59.4 57.0 8.5 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.5 9.0 0.6 60.7 57.7 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 11.1 12.5 10.8 0.4 58.8 56.4 11.7 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.3 12.4 1.0 67.8 63.0 11.7 12.4 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.5 9.8 0.6 63.5 58.8 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.3 13.4 1.0 66.6 61.4 11.4 12.5 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.5 8.5 0.4 57.7 56.5 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 13.2 13.4 13.5 0.9 68.0 61.5 11.2 12.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.3 6.3 0.2 53.3 53.3 5.7 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.9 12.3 12.5 0.6 62.1 58.1 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.4 13.0 0.7 65.0 59.6 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 12.8 13.1 13.2 0.9 68.5 61.5 10.9 11.7 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.1 10.7 0.5 61.1 58.3 11.1 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.1 12.0 0.6 59.8 56.9 10.9 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.0 8.7 0.7 63.2 59.3 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.8 12.9 0.8 63.3 58.7 10.9 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.9 11.4 0.9 67.1 61.5 10.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.8 7.8 0.3 54.3 54.6 7.6 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 13.5 13.1 13.8 1.0 68.2 61.8 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------