***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2019.-19.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 10.1 11.1 11.7 -0.2 46.4 46.4 10.5 11.2 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 10.8 11.9 11.7 0.0 50.1 49.0 10.0 11.9 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 12.1 13.5 11.8 -0.2 47.4 46.0 12.2 13.6 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.7 8.9 -0.4 44.7 43.1 7.1 8.6 9.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 8.8 9.1 8.8 -0.6 39.7 40.6 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 7.7 8.4 6.8 -0.4 40.5 42.5 8.1 9.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 10.3 11.5 11.8 0.1 49.4 49.6 10.2 11.5 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 2.5 3.3 6.5 -0.7 35.2 38.7 2.9 4.2 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 9.9 10.4 9.0 -0.6 39.7 41.0 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 9.7 10.0 7.4 -0.7 36.6 39.4 9.8 11.0 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 9.6 9.8 8.1 -0.6 38.5 40.3 9.5 10.6 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 7.6 7.8 7.3 -0.6 37.2 40.1 7.5 8.9 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 9.1 9.8 6.8 -0.7 37.6 39.5 9.1 10.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 10.2 10.9 8.9 -0.6 37.5 39.8 10.8 11.6 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 11.5 11.0 10.3 -0.1 48.2 46.9 10.5 11.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 10.0 10.5 7.6 -0.6 41.4 41.1 10.0 11.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.1 11.5 11.5 0.0 49.4 49.4 10.5 11.6 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 7.9 8.2 6.6 -0.7 35.5 38.6 8.1 8.9 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 10.5 11.7 11.6 0.0 50.1 48.0 10.3 11.7 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.2 4.4 -0.8 32.6 37.0 4.2 5.2 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 9.8 10.3 10.6 -0.5 42.2 42.7 9.9 10.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 11.1 10.1 11.1 -0.2 47.1 47.1 9.9 10.6 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 10.1 11.0 11.3 -0.2 49.6 46.2 10.3 11.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 9.9 10.1 8.7 -0.6 38.8 40.8 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 10.0 10.3 10.1 -0.4 43.5 43.8 10.0 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 8.7 9.2 6.6 -0.5 39.4 40.9 8.5 10.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 10.2 11.4 11.0 -0.2 45.5 46.1 11.0 11.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 8.6 9.1 9.2 -0.3 45.4 44.3 8.6 9.4 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 6.7 7.5 5.9 -0.8 34.0 37.7 7.4 8.2 9.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 10.5 11.5 11.8 0.0 49.4 48.7 10.5 11.7 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------