***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2019.-12.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 8.7 8.1 9.2 -1.6 25.6 31.8 8.9 10.3 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 8.6 9.0 9.1 -1.3 28.9 34.6 9.1 10.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 10.4 10.0 9.4 -1.4 26.2 33.1 10.1 12.1 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 5.3 5.1 6.7 -1.4 25.7 32.7 5.3 6.7 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 7.0 6.4 7.1 -1.7 20.1 30.3 7.1 8.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 6.2 5.8 4.9 -1.4 24.5 31.8 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 8.6 8.8 9.2 -1.3 29.9 35.3 8.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 1.0 0.3 4.7 -1.6 20.6 31.7 1.5 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 8.2 7.7 7.4 -1.4 22.6 32.1 8.2 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 8.1 7.5 5.7 -1.6 21.9 31.8 8.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 7.8 7.5 6.7 -1.5 24.0 32.4 8.0 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 6.2 6.1 5.7 -1.5 22.3 33.2 6.8 7.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 7.5 7.3 5.6 -1.5 24.2 32.9 7.6 8.7 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 8.6 8.4 7.1 -1.6 20.2 30.1 9.1 10.0 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 9.4 9.5 8.5 -1.0 33.1 36.1 9.5 10.4 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 8.2 7.5 6.2 -1.5 24.2 32.6 8.7 9.5 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 9.3 9.3 8.9 -1.3 30.0 35.3 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 6.4 6.3 5.0 -1.6 20.6 31.7 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 72 28 0 100 9.0 8.8 9.1 -1.3 27.5 34.5 8.9 10.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 3.2 2.6 2.9 -1.8 16.5 30.0 3.4 4.1 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 8.1 7.5 8.6 -1.5 21.7 31.5 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 8.7 8.4 8.9 -1.4 26.2 33.6 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 8.7 8.8 9.1 -1.3 27.2 34.5 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 8.2 8.1 7.1 -1.5 23.6 32.3 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 8.4 8.1 8.0 -1.8 20.7 29.4 8.6 10.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 7.2 6.8 4.9 -1.5 22.1 32.0 7.5 8.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 8.7 8.5 8.7 -1.6 24.1 31.1 8.9 10.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 7.2 7.4 7.3 -1.2 29.7 35.0 7.5 8.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 5.2 4.4 4.2 -1.7 18.1 30.7 6.0 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 8.9 9.1 9.3 -1.4 27.8 34.1 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------