***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 8.5 8.1 9.5 -1.5 28.9 30.1 8.8 10.1 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 7.8 7.7 9.2 -1.4 29.1 31.3 7.9 9.4 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 9.6 9.5 9.5 -1.4 27.0 29.5 9.9 11.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 6.3 4.8 6.9 -1.2 35.6 35.1 4.7 5.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 6.1 6.5 7.5 -1.5 26.2 28.1 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.8 6.0 5.2 -0.9 40.7 40.1 5.8 6.5 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.1 8.1 9.3 -1.3 32.3 33.6 8.1 9.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 85 15 0 100 -0.1 -0.4 4.3 -1.8 16.5 19.8 0.7 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 7.5 7.3 7.6 -1.3 26.4 29.1 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 7.4 7.1 5.5 -1.5 21.2 24.0 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 7.2 7.0 6.9 -1.4 24.6 27.3 7.1 8.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 5.5 5.3 5.7 -1.5 24.3 26.5 5.5 6.5 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.0 6.9 6.4 -0.7 38.3 39.0 6.5 7.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 8.1 7.8 7.4 -1.1 28.8 30.2 8.0 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 9.3 8.8 8.8 -0.6 44.2 44.0 8.0 9.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.3 6.8 -1.0 33.9 35.5 8.2 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 8.6 8.7 8.9 -1.3 29.9 32.0 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 5.0 4.9 5.1 -1.4 22.9 24.6 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 8.0 8.0 9.2 -1.3 29.4 31.2 8.2 9.5 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 1.9 1.6 3.1 -1.8 15.7 19.4 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 7.1 7.1 8.8 -1.4 25.3 28.0 7.3 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 7.7 7.3 9.1 -1.3 27.7 30.8 8.2 9.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 7.3 8.0 9.1 -1.2 30.2 31.5 8.1 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 7.6 7.7 7.4 -1.2 27.6 29.0 8.0 8.3 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 7.3 6.9 8.5 -1.8 25.0 27.2 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.7 6.9 5.4 -1.1 32.9 34.2 6.9 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 7.5 7.3 9.0 -1.7 27.0 29.2 7.6 9.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 7.3 6.9 7.7 -0.7 43.0 41.7 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 81 19 0 100 3.9 4.0 4.1 -1.6 19.2 21.7 5.1 6.0 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 8.1 7.5 9.4 -1.4 29.0 30.5 7.8 9.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------