***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 63.1 109.4 62.5 55.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 44.5 43.7 65.8 110.2 60.0 57.1 28.4 38.7 53.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 52.2 60.6 63.1 107.5 61.6 55.7 36.4 46.6 61.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 69.2 62.7 74.3 105.3 56.3 55.2 50.3 60.4 70.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 54.0 58.1 72.6 103.9 56.5 54.8 35.8 47.0 66.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 44.4 55.8 96.4 99.8 53.1 51.1 42.0 54.8 66.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 25.3 50.4 66.6 110.7 62.5 57.1 22.3 32.6 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 75.8 98.5 81.0 104.5 55.9 54.7 77.6 92.9 103.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 52.6 52.1 70.2 104.1 59.5 54.8 38.3 45.5 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 64.8 61.3 80.8 103.4 57.9 54.2 43.0 55.3 76.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 49.4 50.3 69.3 102.3 54.0 53.4 34.9 44.1 60.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 43.6 55.6 69.1 103.2 53.9 53.4 44.2 55.0 59.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 34.6 41.5 82.1 99.6 47.2 50.4 35.3 42.9 59.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 65.7 63.7 75.5 101.3 57.1 53.3 44.7 58.2 70.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 48.9 50.4 69.3 104.1 57.9 53.8 35.8 46.2 55.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 51.4 47.9 75.4 101.0 51.7 52.2 39.9 47.1 58.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 46.3 50.1 63.9 106.2 60.1 55.0 23.6 40.5 54.1 29 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 46.4 63.5 89.1 103.0 58.8 53.8 43.9 53.7 81.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 57.5 63.8 64.4 109.0 59.1 56.6 37.6 50.8 69.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 66.5 65.6 101.5 106.4 58.1 55.9 46.6 62.0 71.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 52.6 55.4 62.7 105.5 64.4 55.3 36.3 49.1 56.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 42.9 44.4 62.0 103.9 58.2 54.2 25.3 36.3 53.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 47.9 50.3 64.1 107.0 58.4 55.4 33.2 41.2 60.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 60.8 62.3 75.8 102.6 59.7 53.8 42.3 53.4 71.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 55.1 53.4 74.8 106.1 58.4 54.5 30.9 48.8 64.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 38.6 54.1 76.5 103.9 55.1 53.8 40.6 49.8 57.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 56.8 59.4 72.7 108.5 60.4 54.9 38.1 50.9 67.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 52.3 50.1 72.5 104.0 56.2 54.0 36.5 48.0 54.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 89.2 87.9 91.0 103.2 57.2 54.1 72.9 83.1 90.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 28.1 47.7 65.5 110.6 60.5 57.1 27.2 37.1 54.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------