***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 17.1 120.6 66.7 55.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.7 17.1 108.3 64.0 54.3 5.0 9.8 13.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.5 15.5 16.3 112.6 65.1 54.0 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 18.4 24.5 18.4 106.9 61.9 51.3 9.9 14.7 27.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.8 21.5 18.0 109.8 63.3 51.9 11.7 14.7 24.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 14.6 15.3 22.1 95.1 54.9 48.7 6.0 12.1 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 11.7 13.0 17.6 110.6 63.3 55.3 3.4 10.5 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 24.4 27.6 18.8 106.6 58.7 50.8 13.0 20.5 31.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 6.2 16.1 17.9 116.4 67.4 53.9 5.4 11.4 15.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 18.0 18.2 19.6 110.7 62.8 52.8 11.5 14.8 19.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.0 16.3 104.7 57.5 49.4 5.1 12.5 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 17.7 16.4 15.8 103.8 56.2 49.6 8.1 15.3 18.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.5 9.8 19.5 102.1 54.8 49.9 5.4 9.4 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.0 18.2 19.4 108.7 64.4 55.6 9.5 14.1 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.5 19.2 16.6 103.9 63.9 50.2 5.9 8.9 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.7 12.8 17.5 100.0 55.0 48.8 5.8 10.8 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.5 10.3 16.8 108.7 63.9 54.9 4.3 6.6 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.4 22.0 113.2 62.2 55.5 7.8 11.9 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.5 16.4 16.6 108.2 62.9 53.9 4.8 9.2 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.9 19.1 24.3 116.2 62.1 55.9 8.4 14.7 20.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.7 18.6 16.6 121.3 67.3 54.4 7.2 9.9 18.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.2 11.0 16.5 111.6 64.3 53.9 5.6 9.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 10.8 13.0 16.4 109.6 61.9 54.2 6.1 8.8 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 15.5 16.6 19.2 110.8 61.5 54.7 7.4 12.7 17.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 13.4 18.5 20.5 119.1 64.3 54.3 6.6 9.6 20.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.0 16.8 104.1 56.9 50.6 7.1 10.7 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 17.3 18.6 20.0 118.6 65.3 54.6 5.0 14.6 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.8 17.1 101.2 60.6 50.0 9.4 13.6 18.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 25.5 26.5 22.3 114.4 63.9 56.3 14.3 21.9 27.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.4 13.2 17.0 109.4 63.5 54.2 5.9 10.6 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------