***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 18.6 111.3 63.6 55.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.8 19.6 116.9 65.5 58.5 4.0 7.7 11.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 13.2 22.6 18.3 111.5 66.9 56.5 4.5 8.9 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.1 15.3 19.9 90.9 56.1 50.4 4.5 12.2 19.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.8 20.0 92.1 59.0 51.0 3.2 6.9 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.3 9.4 28.2 95.3 52.3 48.3 7.3 9.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.3 12.5 20.3 120.9 65.8 59.4 2.8 6.0 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 11.8 21.1 24.1 104.9 61.1 52.3 11.9 16.3 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.8 20.0 94.3 61.3 52.3 4.2 9.4 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.1 15.7 23.7 99.9 59.9 52.0 9.1 12.9 16.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.1 12.0 19.7 95.4 58.0 50.4 2.6 6.5 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.9 9.1 20.3 101.6 59.2 50.4 2.9 7.3 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.7 7.3 24.1 97.9 56.8 47.5 3.0 5.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 13.7 15.9 22.1 109.1 58.8 55.9 3.7 10.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.0 6.8 18.8 90.5 56.9 49.9 1.5 4.1 9.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.8 12.2 21.5 95.5 56.7 48.6 8.0 9.8 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.4 10.6 19.5 114.7 63.0 57.8 4.0 7.2 11.1 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 7.8 15.7 26.3 103.8 58.7 52.7 7.6 13.2 19.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.3 13.0 18.7 113.8 64.7 58.0 4.1 9.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.5 11.6 31.0 111.3 59.6 54.4 5.3 9.6 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.0 13.1 17.7 97.1 60.8 53.2 2.0 8.6 13.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 13.4 13.7 18.2 109.2 61.2 57.5 4.1 11.5 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.9 15.7 18.0 110.8 63.8 57.3 3.6 11.4 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 15.9 17.8 22.2 107.7 62.4 55.1 9.1 13.5 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.1 20.6 98.8 57.1 52.1 2.4 5.9 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.6 22.2 103.1 62.5 50.1 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.0 13.9 21.0 109.7 60.9 55.0 5.2 10.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.6 7.5 19.8 91.0 55.9 49.7 4.6 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 18.2 20.1 27.2 106.8 58.7 52.8 10.3 15.5 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 13.0 15.7 19.5 117.8 65.7 58.4 5.8 11.1 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------