***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.8 117.9 65.2 54.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.9 14.2 17.1 118.0 70.1 55.9 3.7 7.5 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 5.6 17.5 16.7 119.2 69.5 54.5 5.2 11.4 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 16.8 25.3 24.6 145.7 73.4 62.0 8.2 14.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 15.1 21.0 23.4 140.3 70.8 59.6 3.8 12.0 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.6 19.8 30.7 119.9 64.5 56.1 7.2 12.8 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.8 11.3 16.4 109.9 64.6 53.9 4.8 7.4 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 26.2 35.0 25.2 133.4 69.0 60.6 14.9 22.6 33.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.2 23.7 21.7 135.9 70.2 57.9 5.0 10.5 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.8 18.1 24.7 132.4 68.8 59.1 10.8 13.9 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 12.5 14.1 22.1 134.2 70.0 60.0 6.3 10.6 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.1 21.7 21.9 132.0 68.5 60.5 7.0 13.9 19.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.8 14.9 25.2 117.7 68.1 56.3 6.9 10.1 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 7.6 24.6 21.2 121.0 74.0 56.5 7.1 12.4 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 12.9 23.3 23.3 147.0 73.7 61.4 5.0 9.7 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.8 17.1 24.4 128.9 70.0 58.7 5.5 12.4 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.3 15.2 16.7 114.7 66.9 54.5 4.3 8.2 14.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.9 22.4 26.4 124.8 69.2 58.0 8.7 15.6 20.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 23.4 24.8 17.2 121.0 71.6 56.3 11.4 16.0 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 17.0 21.7 30.5 122.9 69.1 58.5 6.2 14.2 20.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 8.5 21.8 18.5 131.9 69.9 56.7 4.3 15.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.6 12.3 17.3 117.3 66.1 55.1 5.8 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 20.9 20.0 17.4 123.0 72.8 56.4 6.8 8.4 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.3 25.8 21.4 121.0 70.7 56.4 7.6 17.9 20.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 15.6 18.9 21.9 124.7 67.6 57.5 6.3 12.6 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 12.9 19.5 24.0 126.8 66.0 59.0 5.0 10.3 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 15.4 17.4 19.6 115.8 65.4 55.1 6.5 12.9 17.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 15.6 22.4 24.7 147.6 73.5 61.7 6.7 12.6 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.4 26.9 26.9 121.8 68.1 57.3 12.5 18.0 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.8 17.5 16.6 115.6 66.9 54.4 3.3 9.4 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------