***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 10.7 84.7 53.1 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.3 12.0 94.9 55.8 49.1 1.4 4.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.4 8.0 11.7 85.6 59.7 48.1 2.9 4.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.7 10.7 11.3 78.2 56.3 44.0 7.5 9.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.3 11.2 74.2 55.5 43.2 4.3 5.9 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.4 15.5 84.9 51.9 45.2 4.2 8.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.6 4.6 12.2 98.2 57.1 49.2 1.5 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 11.1 18.1 13.0 72.0 51.8 41.8 12.8 17.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.4 10.6 71.0 54.4 42.3 5.2 6.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.9 12.1 12.8 70.8 53.1 42.2 3.7 11.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.9 7.6 11.1 74.6 55.3 44.1 3.7 6.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.6 11.2 73.5 53.3 43.3 3.7 7.1 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.7 8.0 13.3 76.8 50.5 43.9 6.1 8.0 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.2 8.8 12.8 67.9 47.1 39.9 6.0 9.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.1 10.6 75.7 56.3 40.9 4.5 8.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.9 6.5 11.9 76.4 52.1 43.8 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 5.1 3.6 10.8 82.7 51.4 43.6 1.6 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.9 12.2 14.3 69.8 48.9 41.2 3.2 12.5 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.8 12.0 91.4 57.5 48.7 2.3 5.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.3 8.3 15.7 72.1 44.3 39.2 6.5 9.4 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.5 5.1 9.9 73.4 52.4 43.4 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 2.4 5.4 10.0 74.4 50.4 43.0 2.6 5.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.9 12.2 84.6 58.6 46.4 2.9 6.7 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.4 7.5 13.0 71.5 52.0 42.5 4.7 7.1 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.2 11.7 79.8 52.3 43.2 1.4 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.3 7.6 13.4 79.3 53.7 44.0 3.3 7.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.8 12.0 86.0 53.7 45.9 2.6 5.9 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.9 6.7 10.9 76.1 54.6 42.2 4.1 5.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.3 17.6 14.6 69.1 48.1 39.7 9.1 18.0 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.5 12.3 97.4 58.9 50.9 1.3 4.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------