***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9999.0 0.0 21.8 0.2 61.1 55.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 23.7 24.1 21.6 0.1 59.6 53.1 21.8 23.4 24.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 23.7 23.7 21.8 0.1 60.1 54.2 21.9 23.5 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 16.1 16.4 19.9 0.1 62.2 54.8 14.8 15.7 16.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 23.7 23.7 20.1 0.1 61.1 54.1 22.2 23.4 24.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 21.7 21.9 18.0 0.3 64.8 56.6 21.0 21.4 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 23.3 23.5 21.5 0.0 58.4 52.5 21.2 23.0 23.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.3 18.3 0.0 56.3 52.3 10.5 10.8 12.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 23.0 23.0 20.6 0.0 59.0 53.2 21.5 22.6 23.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 22.6 22.7 19.2 0.0 56.9 52.2 21.8 22.3 23.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 22.9 23.0 19.7 0.1 59.8 54.0 21.9 22.6 23.3 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 22.0 22.0 19.2 0.1 58.0 53.8 21.1 21.7 22.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 23.1 23.2 18.9 0.2 63.4 55.8 22.0 22.8 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 23.6 23.4 20.2 -0.2 53.9 48.2 21.8 23.3 23.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 23.5 23.8 20.5 0.2 62.5 56.6 22.1 23.1 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 23.4 24.0 19.4 0.2 62.8 55.3 22.5 23.1 24.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 22.9 23.3 21.2 -0.1 56.5 51.3 20.9 22.5 23.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 22.3 22.0 18.5 -0.1 55.2 50.6 21.4 22.0 22.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 23.2 23.4 21.7 0.1 59.8 53.3 21.4 22.8 23.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 17.5 17.5 16.2 -0.1 56.4 50.5 16.6 17.3 17.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 23.5 23.4 21.4 0.1 60.2 54.2 21.8 23.2 24.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 23.4 23.3 21.2 -0.2 53.3 49.7 21.5 23.0 24.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 23.6 23.7 21.6 0.1 59.1 52.7 22.1 23.3 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 23.0 23.0 20.2 0.0 56.4 50.7 21.5 22.8 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 23.6 23.7 20.4 0.1 62.2 54.9 21.5 23.3 23.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 22.2 22.4 18.4 0.2 62.6 56.1 21.4 21.9 22.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.4 21.1 0.2 61.1 54.8 21.6 23.2 23.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 23.2 23.8 20.1 0.1 61.6 54.9 22.1 22.8 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 17.4 17.2 17.5 -0.1 54.1 49.8 16.5 17.1 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 23.5 23.8 21.8 0.1 59.7 53.7 21.3 23.2 24.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------