***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.8 -1.3 31.9 36.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 22.0 23.2 21.6 -1.3 32.3 35.9 23.3 24.4 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 21.6 22.8 21.9 -1.3 33.0 36.4 22.8 24.3 25.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 14.3 15.1 20.2 -1.2 34.0 36.6 15.1 16.7 18.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 22.1 22.6 20.4 -1.2 34.6 37.0 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 20.7 21.0 18.3 -1.0 33.1 38.3 21.0 22.8 24.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 21.9 22.8 21.5 -1.4 30.6 35.2 22.8 23.7 24.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 10.3 10.6 18.6 -1.2 30.5 35.7 11.0 12.8 13.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 21.4 21.5 20.7 -1.2 34.3 36.8 21.4 24.3 24.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 21.6 21.7 19.4 -1.3 31.7 36.1 21.8 24.1 24.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 21.9 22.3 19.9 -1.1 33.7 37.4 22.2 24.2 24.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 20.6 21.3 19.6 -1.1 32.6 37.0 21.3 22.7 23.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 21.6 22.5 19.0 -1.1 32.7 37.8 22.5 23.6 24.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 21.3 22.1 20.2 -1.5 29.7 34.2 22.4 24.5 25.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 22.8 22.6 20.6 -1.2 34.9 36.8 22.6 24.7 25.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 22.3 23.1 19.6 -1.1 34.1 37.7 23.0 24.3 25.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 21.6 22.7 21.2 -1.4 30.1 34.9 22.9 23.6 24.9 29 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 20.7 21.3 18.6 -1.4 29.1 34.9 21.5 23.1 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 21.5 22.8 21.7 -1.3 33.2 36.2 22.8 23.8 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 16.0 16.6 16.3 -1.5 28.8 33.0 16.9 18.2 19.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 21.5 22.5 21.4 -1.3 34.2 36.6 22.3 24.2 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 22.0 23.1 21.2 -1.5 30.1 34.5 23.1 24.1 24.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 21.5 23.3 21.6 -1.3 33.4 36.1 23.3 24.2 25.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 21.0 21.6 20.2 -1.4 30.9 35.3 21.6 23.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 21.8 22.8 20.3 -1.3 33.3 35.7 22.8 24.1 24.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 20.9 21.8 18.8 -1.1 34.7 37.3 21.8 23.0 24.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 21.3 22.6 21.0 -1.3 31.2 35.5 22.8 23.8 25.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 22.2 22.4 20.5 -1.2 34.6 37.2 22.3 23.8 25.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 73 27 0 100 15.6 16.5 17.6 -1.4 28.3 34.0 16.9 18.1 19.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 21.6 23.1 21.7 -1.3 31.7 36.0 23.1 24.0 25.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------