***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.05.2013.-19.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 21.0 -1.1 34.0 38.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 22.5 22.6 20.8 -1.2 33.0 37.4 22.6 24.7 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 21.9 22.9 21.1 -1.0 33.1 38.3 22.9 24.3 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 15.0 15.7 19.2 -1.1 34.8 38.0 15.4 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 22.6 23.3 19.4 -1.0 36.4 38.6 23.0 24.5 26.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 20.5 22.2 17.2 -0.8 38.0 39.5 21.6 23.3 24.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 21.5 22.8 20.7 -1.3 33.4 37.0 22.7 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 10.0 11.3 17.6 -1.1 33.0 37.6 11.3 12.9 13.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 22.2 22.2 19.8 -1.0 36.7 38.9 22.1 24.3 25.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 21.8 22.3 18.4 -1.0 34.3 38.1 22.2 23.9 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 22.0 23.0 18.8 -1.0 37.0 38.7 22.4 24.3 24.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 20.5 22.1 18.5 -1.0 35.3 38.2 21.7 23.4 24.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 21.6 23.5 18.0 -0.9 37.4 38.7 23.4 24.2 25.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 21.9 22.6 19.4 -1.2 33.5 37.8 22.5 24.5 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 25.5 22.3 19.6 -1.1 33.6 38.1 22.3 25.1 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 22.6 24.2 18.5 -0.9 38.4 38.8 23.5 24.9 25.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 21.2 21.5 20.5 -1.4 31.9 36.7 21.8 23.4 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 20.9 22.0 17.7 -1.1 33.1 37.7 22.0 23.3 24.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 21.6 22.5 20.9 -1.1 34.7 38.0 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 15.6 17.0 15.3 -1.1 31.0 36.4 17.2 18.5 19.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 21.9 22.8 20.6 -1.0 35.6 39.0 22.6 24.2 25.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 22.0 21.8 20.5 -1.3 32.7 36.5 21.9 24.7 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 22.0 22.9 20.8 -1.0 36.3 38.4 22.1 24.4 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 21.3 22.5 19.4 -1.1 32.6 38.2 22.5 23.8 24.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 21.9 22.6 19.5 -1.1 33.4 37.3 22.5 24.1 25.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 21.0 22.7 17.7 -0.9 36.2 38.8 22.6 23.4 24.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 21.8 22.8 20.2 -1.1 33.5 37.4 22.7 24.2 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 25.1 22.8 19.4 -1.0 36.2 38.7 22.0 24.5 25.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 15.7 16.6 16.6 -1.1 32.5 37.3 16.7 18.5 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 22.0 22.8 21.0 -1.1 33.4 37.6 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------