***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 20.4 -0.3 44.3 47.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 23.1 21.9 20.3 -0.4 45.4 47.4 20.4 22.5 23.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 22.7 21.3 20.4 -0.5 45.2 46.3 20.5 21.9 24.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.0 18.4 -0.6 43.7 44.3 13.2 15.0 16.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 22.9 21.1 18.4 -0.8 41.2 42.9 20.5 22.1 23.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 21.5 19.5 16.0 -0.9 41.0 41.6 19.1 20.8 21.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.6 20.3 -0.3 45.4 47.9 19.9 22.0 23.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 10.8 9.0 16.6 -1.0 41.1 41.8 8.1 10.4 11.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 22.1 20.4 18.8 -0.9 40.1 42.6 19.8 21.3 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 21.8 20.2 17.4 -1.0 40.7 41.8 19.8 21.1 23.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 21.9 20.5 17.8 -0.9 41.0 42.3 20.2 21.1 23.4 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 21.2 19.7 17.5 -0.9 41.5 42.1 19.1 20.6 22.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 22.3 20.9 16.9 -0.9 41.6 42.5 20.1 21.4 22.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 20.9 21.3 18.6 -0.9 39.4 43.1 20.7 22.3 23.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 22.4 21.2 18.9 -0.4 44.2 46.2 21.0 21.8 24.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 22.7 21.1 17.5 -0.9 41.8 42.0 20.6 21.8 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.3 20.0 -0.4 45.7 47.0 20.0 21.7 22.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 21.3 20.1 16.8 -1.1 40.5 41.8 19.7 20.5 23.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 22.4 21.7 20.3 -0.4 45.6 46.9 20.0 21.9 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 14.7 15.5 14.6 -1.0 43.4 42.8 14.7 16.2 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 22.3 20.8 19.7 -0.7 42.3 44.3 20.3 21.6 23.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 20.6 21.8 19.9 -0.6 44.3 46.0 20.6 22.1 23.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.0 21.3 20.1 -0.6 44.3 45.8 20.4 22.4 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.0 20.2 18.5 -0.9 41.1 43.0 20.0 21.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 22.6 21.7 18.9 -0.4 44.0 47.0 20.0 22.0 24.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 21.9 20.8 16.7 -0.8 44.0 43.5 19.5 21.3 22.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 22.5 20.9 19.7 -0.3 44.9 48.1 20.2 21.9 23.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 22.7 21.1 18.5 -0.7 42.7 43.4 20.8 22.1 23.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 16.2 15.2 15.8 -1.0 41.0 42.3 14.5 15.5 17.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 22.6 21.7 20.4 -0.4 45.2 47.6 19.9 21.9 23.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------