***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 9999.0 0.0 24.0 3.3 89.4 85.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 24.0 25.3 23.7 3.1 88.7 84.6 20.6 22.7 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 24.0 25.8 24.1 3.3 89.1 85.4 20.8 22.7 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 17.2 17.8 21.5 3.4 88.8 86.7 12.9 14.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 24.2 25.4 22.5 3.4 88.7 85.6 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 22.8 23.6 20.4 3.8 88.9 87.0 18.9 19.8 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 23.3 25.4 23.5 3.1 88.9 84.2 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 11.8 14.4 20.6 3.4 88.0 84.9 8.2 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 23.6 24.8 23.3 3.3 88.4 84.7 20.0 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 23.2 24.7 21.6 3.3 88.1 84.4 20.3 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 7 93 100 23.8 24.9 22.2 3.4 89.1 85.2 20.4 21.2 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 23.0 24.5 21.3 3.5 88.5 85.5 19.3 20.6 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 23.8 25.3 21.6 3.7 89.1 86.3 20.4 21.0 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 23.4 25.3 22.6 2.8 86.2 80.8 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 3 97 100 23.9 24.9 23.1 3.5 90.1 88.1 19.7 22.0 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 24.1 26.0 22.0 3.6 89.4 86.3 20.5 21.6 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 11 89 100 23.3 24.2 23.2 2.9 86.3 83.2 20.2 21.7 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 7 93 100 23.1 24.5 20.9 3.3 86.1 83.2 19.7 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 23.6 25.0 23.8 3.2 88.8 84.8 20.3 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 18.1 20.6 18.7 3.3 86.1 83.7 14.3 15.7 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 5 95 100 23.9 25.1 24.0 3.3 89.0 85.1 21.0 21.8 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 23.8 24.7 23.1 2.7 85.0 81.8 20.9 22.5 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 23.9 25.3 23.8 3.2 88.1 84.5 20.5 22.8 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 23.1 23.8 22.6 3.1 86.4 82.9 20.4 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 24.0 24.9 22.8 3.4 89.7 86.2 20.9 22.2 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 23.5 25.2 20.6 3.7 89.7 87.1 19.3 20.0 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 23.9 25.4 23.4 3.3 89.6 85.9 20.6 21.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 3 97 100 23.9 24.8 22.2 3.4 88.8 86.7 20.2 21.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 17.7 19.9 20.0 3.2 85.1 82.5 14.4 15.8 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 23.8 25.5 23.9 3.2 89.1 85.2 20.5 22.3 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------