***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 12.5 0.6 68.8 65.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 10.9 11.4 12.1 0.4 61.6 59.8 10.2 10.8 11.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.6 13.2 12.1 0.5 66.6 62.3 12.0 12.4 13.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.1 10.1 0.5 65.5 62.8 6.4 7.6 8.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 9.5 9.7 10.1 0.5 62.9 62.5 8.7 9.3 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 43 57 100 8.7 8.9 8.1 0.6 73.0 67.2 7.7 8.3 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 10.8 11.3 12.2 0.4 63.1 61.3 10.2 10.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 3.6 3.7 8.3 0.6 68.5 66.5 2.7 3.1 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.1 10.6 10.4 0.5 63.2 62.2 9.6 10.0 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.6 8.9 0.5 66.9 64.1 9.4 10.2 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.7 10.3 9.5 0.5 66.7 64.4 9.3 9.5 10.2 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 8.6 8.5 8.9 0.6 67.8 66.3 7.7 8.3 8.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.9 8.4 0.5 68.0 62.9 9.0 9.3 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.0 10.3 0.3 61.6 58.1 10.0 10.9 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 11.5 11.3 10.9 0.6 70.9 66.5 10.3 11.1 11.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.8 10.9 9.1 0.5 66.2 64.2 9.9 10.6 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.3 11.8 0.3 60.7 57.7 10.5 11.2 11.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.6 8.2 0.5 65.8 62.3 7.9 8.3 8.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.2 12.0 0.4 62.6 59.4 10.2 10.8 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 5.0 5.2 6.3 0.4 65.5 61.3 4.2 4.7 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 10.2 10.5 11.6 0.5 65.2 62.7 9.5 10.1 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.6 11.7 0.2 60.5 55.3 9.7 10.1 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 10.5 10.9 11.7 0.3 62.9 58.9 10.1 10.3 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 10.4 10.5 10.1 0.4 63.8 60.3 9.8 10.2 10.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 11.2 11.2 11.1 0.6 67.6 64.0 9.9 10.6 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 9.6 9.7 8.4 0.5 71.1 64.2 8.5 9.2 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 11.6 11.7 11.9 0.6 69.0 65.5 10.2 10.9 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.1 9.5 10.4 0.5 67.7 64.6 8.5 8.9 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.7 7.4 0.4 66.8 62.0 7.1 7.4 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 11.0 11.3 12.3 0.5 64.1 61.5 10.4 10.7 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------