***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.05.2013.-26.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 9999.0 0.0 12.4 -1.1 25.3 33.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 10.8 10.9 12.2 -1.2 26.4 33.0 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 12.1 12.0 12.1 -1.1 26.5 33.5 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 6.5 6.7 10.4 -1.0 24.4 32.8 7.6 8.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 9.4 9.3 10.2 -1.0 26.5 32.9 10.1 11.0 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 8.5 8.7 8.4 -0.7 31.5 35.9 8.7 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.7 10.7 12.2 -1.2 28.1 33.0 10.9 11.9 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 3.0 2.9 8.4 -0.9 25.7 33.6 3.5 4.6 5.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 10.0 10.4 10.6 -1.0 25.4 33.0 11.0 11.7 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 10.3 10.4 9.1 -1.0 24.8 33.6 11.0 11.9 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 10.3 10.5 9.8 -0.9 25.7 34.2 11.1 11.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 8.1 8.3 9.2 -0.8 27.5 34.5 8.5 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 9.8 9.9 8.8 -0.7 30.6 36.1 10.1 11.1 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 10.8 10.7 10.4 -1.1 23.6 32.0 11.7 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 11.4 11.5 11.0 -0.9 29.7 34.1 11.7 12.4 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 10.6 10.9 9.5 -0.7 29.9 35.6 10.9 11.9 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 10.8 11.1 11.9 -1.2 25.5 32.4 11.4 12.5 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 74 26 0 100 8.9 8.9 8.3 -1.0 24.7 33.6 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 10.8 10.7 12.1 -1.1 26.7 33.3 11.2 12.1 13.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 5.1 5.4 6.5 -1.0 25.1 33.3 5.7 6.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 10.2 10.1 11.6 -1.1 24.1 33.0 10.8 11.6 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 10.0 10.3 11.8 -1.2 24.2 32.0 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 10.4 10.3 11.9 -1.1 26.5 33.2 10.9 11.7 13.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 10.3 10.6 10.2 -1.0 24.6 33.2 11.1 11.4 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 10.6 10.1 10.9 -1.1 24.2 33.2 10.9 12.4 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 9.2 9.6 8.9 -0.8 31.3 35.4 9.7 10.4 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 10.3 10.6 11.7 -1.1 25.5 33.9 10.9 12.1 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 9.5 9.7 10.6 -0.9 28.5 34.1 10.1 10.5 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 6.9 7.0 7.6 -0.9 25.4 33.7 7.6 8.4 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 10.8 10.6 12.3 -1.1 26.9 33.3 11.2 12.4 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------