***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.05.2013.-12.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.5 0.4 57.1 56.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 9.0 10.7 11.3 0.4 57.1 55.0 9.1 10.3 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.3 11.2 0.4 57.3 56.1 10.1 12.1 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.7 9.4 0.5 57.6 58.5 5.3 6.7 8.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.9 9.2 0.4 55.9 56.8 7.1 8.8 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.9 7.4 0.5 57.2 57.9 6.3 7.4 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.7 11.4 0.4 58.5 56.1 8.9 10.5 11.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.8 7.6 0.6 59.8 58.9 1.5 2.3 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.9 9.8 9.6 0.4 54.2 55.5 8.2 9.5 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.9 9.9 8.2 0.5 57.5 57.3 8.1 9.5 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.6 8.8 0.5 60.4 58.7 8.0 9.1 9.9 29 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.7 7.9 8.2 0.5 58.8 58.5 6.8 7.3 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 9.0 9.0 7.6 0.4 57.2 56.3 7.6 8.7 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.7 9.6 0.4 57.7 55.5 9.1 10.0 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 11.5 11.3 10.1 0.6 62.2 60.5 9.5 10.4 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.8 8.4 0.5 59.1 58.2 8.7 9.5 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 9.7 11.2 11.1 0.3 58.4 54.6 9.4 10.7 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.1 7.5 0.5 56.2 56.5 6.6 7.5 8.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 9.4 10.9 11.2 0.4 56.8 54.9 8.9 10.5 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.9 5.8 0.4 56.7 56.1 3.4 4.1 5.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 8.4 9.9 10.6 0.4 54.2 55.5 8.3 9.5 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 9.0 10.3 10.9 0.2 57.3 53.3 8.9 10.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 9.0 10.2 10.9 0.4 56.2 55.2 9.3 10.0 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.0 10.1 9.4 0.5 57.8 56.5 8.8 9.5 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 8.7 10.2 10.1 0.4 55.0 56.3 8.6 10.1 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.7 7.6 0.3 55.1 55.2 7.5 8.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 8.9 10.8 10.8 0.4 57.1 56.3 8.9 10.2 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.0 9.6 0.6 59.6 59.4 7.5 8.4 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.4 7.0 0.6 59.3 57.5 6.0 7.0 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 9.2 10.7 11.4 0.4 57.2 55.5 9.2 10.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------