***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 9999.0 0.0 14.3 3.9 97.9 94.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 11.5 12.8 13.5 3.1 93.3 89.9 7.9 9.4 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 13.3 14.4 13.6 3.3 94.1 92.9 9.9 11.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 8.0 8.8 11.3 3.2 92.8 91.7 4.7 5.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 2 98 100 9.8 11.2 11.4 3.1 96.8 93.8 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 1 99 100 7.9 9.3 9.2 3.3 95.8 94.5 5.8 6.5 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 11.4 12.4 13.7 3.3 94.7 92.1 8.1 9.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 1 99 100 3.9 5.0 9.4 3.2 96.2 94.8 0.7 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 10.2 12.4 11.6 3.0 97.9 95.3 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 9.7 11.8 10.1 3.1 96.4 94.6 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 9.2 11.4 10.6 3.0 97.5 94.5 7.1 8.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 7.7 9.4 9.8 3.1 95.5 93.6 5.5 6.5 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 8.7 9.9 9.2 2.6 93.0 90.6 6.5 7.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 10.9 11.6 11.5 2.7 92.9 90.4 8.0 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 10.9 12.3 12.5 3.3 95.6 94.4 8.0 9.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 10.9 11.4 10.0 2.8 94.6 92.5 8.2 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 8 92 100 11.1 12.1 13.0 2.9 92.1 88.3 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 7.9 9.3 9.1 2.8 94.4 93.3 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 11.4 12.0 13.3 3.0 92.1 89.2 8.2 9.5 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 4.8 6.2 6.9 2.8 94.0 92.6 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 2 98 100 10.4 11.6 13.2 3.3 96.2 94.3 7.3 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 10.1 10.9 12.7 2.5 89.3 85.9 8.2 9.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 10.9 11.4 12.8 2.8 90.9 89.0 8.1 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 1 99 100 10.4 10.7 11.2 2.8 93.4 91.8 8.0 8.3 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 2 98 100 11.2 12.5 13.2 3.7 95.9 93.6 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 1 99 100 8.7 9.9 9.2 3.0 95.3 92.8 6.9 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 12.6 14.6 13.8 3.9 97.1 94.7 7.6 9.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 8.7 9.8 11.5 3.1 93.0 92.2 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 7.8 9.4 8.2 2.7 96.4 93.4 5.1 6.0 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 11.8 13.3 13.8 3.3 93.9 91.7 7.8 9.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------