***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 50.9 53.9 65.2 120.0 65.8 61.8 36.8 46.4 54.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 44.7 56.3 65.6 116.9 65.0 59.5 29.2 40.3 57.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 51.7 62.5 65.8 119.5 66.5 62.7 36.4 47.0 61.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 65.7 70.2 78.7 119.4 68.9 62.7 52.4 59.6 67.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 67.1 73.6 84.7 128.6 72.3 68.4 35.8 48.0 68.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 61.6 76.8 105.9 122.5 71.0 64.4 40.7 56.1 66.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 40.0 50.4 64.6 114.2 62.9 58.4 22.3 32.6 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 93.7 100.4 82.3 110.1 62.8 57.3 77.2 87.4 101.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 64.5 61.6 81.4 125.1 71.0 66.5 38.7 46.0 55.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 75.5 74.9 90.0 118.6 68.4 62.9 44.2 53.2 70.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 58.7 61.9 76.7 126.9 72.7 66.2 35.3 49.4 60.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 57.9 59.2 69.0 114.9 65.0 59.4 43.1 55.4 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 47.9 51.3 85.2 118.6 66.1 62.0 34.7 43.0 51.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 65.6 79.3 85.8 119.9 68.7 63.4 48.4 60.2 70.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 48.3 55.0 72.7 117.6 67.7 62.1 34.0 46.2 55.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 59.0 62.5 83.9 128.0 72.8 67.4 37.5 49.8 58.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 45.1 58.4 65.0 117.6 65.8 58.5 24.8 37.8 58.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 62.5 78.9 97.0 113.3 64.5 59.3 44.0 53.2 81.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 57.1 71.1 67.3 120.7 66.7 62.0 38.8 50.8 69.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 44.8 65.3 95.9 103.1 57.4 53.0 44.4 62.1 70.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 52.5 56.2 69.1 122.5 68.6 64.2 38.3 49.7 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 46.4 52.8 69.7 125.0 69.2 63.1 26.1 42.2 52.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 59.2 65.7 71.2 125.4 68.3 65.2 34.8 42.1 60.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 59.7 71.6 85.5 119.9 67.6 63.3 44.4 54.3 71.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 53.6 67.2 85.7 126.3 70.3 66.4 34.3 49.0 64.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 50.6 55.8 70.4 108.8 62.3 55.7 40.9 48.2 56.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 55.7 67.3 78.2 120.5 66.7 62.4 38.1 51.1 67.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 51.7 59.6 77.8 120.2 69.1 62.8 36.0 48.0 55.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 89.8 89.3 95.1 108.9 60.6 56.6 72.3 84.2 90.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 42.7 55.1 65.0 116.9 65.2 60.3 27.3 37.3 55.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------