***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.05.2014.-25.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.7 12.2 100.3 61.9 52.5 12.7 17.1 18.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.8 14.6 11.8 98.6 63.7 50.5 5.8 10.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.7 14.4 11.6 93.2 60.2 51.2 7.9 10.5 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.2 22.1 15.9 99.5 61.4 50.8 9.1 14.7 24.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 21.0 20.4 15.0 94.3 57.6 50.2 12.1 17.9 24.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 15.0 15.0 19.6 92.4 56.3 47.5 5.2 12.5 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 11.9 13.5 11.8 99.8 64.2 49.4 5.4 9.9 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.8 24.1 14.6 83.8 52.0 44.6 14.3 23.9 33.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.4 13.7 84.3 52.1 47.3 5.5 13.2 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.1 15.1 15.4 83.4 48.5 45.5 10.5 15.4 24.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.6 15.7 13.3 94.6 58.3 50.3 5.3 10.0 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.5 15.9 11.7 86.2 57.4 45.7 4.9 13.0 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.3 10.8 14.1 86.8 54.7 45.2 4.0 9.2 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 10.8 18.0 15.0 91.1 57.7 47.2 11.3 15.9 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.3 16.9 13.7 91.5 61.1 48.8 5.3 11.5 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.9 13.9 91.9 59.0 48.5 5.3 7.2 16.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.6 11.7 11.6 98.2 65.0 48.9 6.0 8.9 12.2 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.1 14.0 16.8 81.6 49.3 43.6 8.1 14.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 7.3 16.1 11.7 96.0 62.6 50.9 6.7 10.0 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.3 16.3 17.1 79.2 46.5 40.6 9.8 17.4 23.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.9 18.0 11.7 86.8 56.1 48.3 9.9 13.6 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.6 12.1 95.1 62.2 49.8 7.1 10.4 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.2 12.9 12.1 93.2 61.5 50.3 7.3 8.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 8.9 15.7 14.6 87.8 56.5 47.5 7.8 13.9 24.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.7 15.1 16.7 104.2 60.8 52.9 7.9 10.8 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.3 10.7 11.2 79.5 52.9 41.8 6.5 9.8 17.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 19.4 18.6 15.7 105.5 62.3 53.3 8.3 17.7 19.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.4 19.8 14.9 94.8 61.0 49.6 10.3 14.6 20.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 12.9 23.6 16.7 80.5 49.1 42.6 15.9 23.8 32.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 7.0 14.2 11.8 98.9 63.7 51.3 8.9 11.8 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------