***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.05.2014.-18.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.2 19.0 17.2 129.4 72.1 60.4 4.4 11.2 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 13.4 17.1 117.3 70.8 57.6 4.0 7.3 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 19.9 24.3 17.2 130.2 75.4 59.9 4.5 9.4 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 14.3 18.6 20.5 120.3 67.2 57.0 5.8 10.9 17.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 17.3 20.1 121.9 70.6 56.8 4.0 7.9 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 11.0 11.0 26.2 108.6 59.7 51.6 6.3 9.6 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.3 13.2 16.8 115.5 68.6 57.7 2.9 4.8 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 11.9 21.9 20.6 105.6 62.1 50.7 11.2 19.6 23.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.4 22.0 19.5 122.4 75.7 55.8 5.1 9.4 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 5.6 19.1 22.1 114.3 68.7 53.9 5.7 10.9 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.6 19.1 123.9 68.4 55.6 3.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.3 10.9 17.0 108.3 61.7 50.2 5.3 7.2 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.0 20.6 106.5 62.6 49.8 3.6 6.3 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.0 18.3 21.3 114.5 66.1 55.9 5.4 15.4 18.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.9 19.4 127.1 71.4 57.5 1.5 4.8 7.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.3 20.1 117.0 64.4 54.3 6.8 9.0 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.8 10.9 17.5 116.0 69.1 55.1 2.7 5.0 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 17.8 23.8 106.4 63.2 52.7 9.2 13.1 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.3 16.9 17.2 121.1 72.6 57.7 3.9 9.4 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.1 11.0 23.4 93.8 58.3 49.0 5.9 8.6 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 16.6 18.3 17.2 126.3 74.4 57.6 1.1 9.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.1 16.0 17.7 118.3 68.8 55.0 4.1 9.6 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 11.8 17.2 17.5 122.8 71.3 57.3 3.9 9.5 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.8 19.8 21.4 119.1 68.0 57.0 7.0 12.4 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.8 18.0 21.0 123.6 70.7 57.7 3.2 6.0 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.0 7.7 16.3 94.5 55.8 45.2 4.0 6.9 15.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.1 13.7 19.4 120.6 69.5 58.1 3.6 9.8 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.8 10.6 20.2 120.3 67.6 56.8 3.4 6.6 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.6 20.0 23.2 101.3 62.4 51.7 10.4 17.9 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.5 16.5 16.9 121.2 72.1 59.0 4.6 8.3 15.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------