***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.05.2014.-11.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.6 8.9 11.4 70.5 47.0 40.3 7.1 10.1 17.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.1 9.6 12.1 73.0 49.7 42.1 3.4 9.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.2 9.2 10.7 63.6 43.2 37.9 3.6 12.0 15.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 6.7 12.8 12.2 66.5 41.0 35.6 9.8 17.6 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.3 6.3 13.3 70.9 42.7 38.9 5.5 10.8 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.6 13.4 21.6 89.4 49.1 45.4 7.5 14.3 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 5.0 7.0 12.5 74.2 47.3 43.3 4.9 8.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 12.2 22.1 15.4 72.5 44.1 38.8 17.5 24.8 34.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.0 7.8 13.2 69.1 43.0 38.1 4.3 9.0 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.6 11.7 16.5 75.5 44.2 39.8 10.2 13.0 18.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 4.5 9.4 13.2 77.2 47.8 41.2 4.2 10.0 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 8.3 14.0 12.1 71.8 47.2 39.2 8.6 14.6 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.0 10.1 16.3 81.4 46.8 42.2 6.8 10.1 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 7.0 9.1 14.9 71.7 39.9 39.2 7.2 13.2 23.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.9 13.2 78.3 51.3 42.7 5.8 9.5 16.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 5.2 12.1 15.6 84.4 48.8 44.2 5.3 12.2 15.2 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 6.0 12.2 11.8 76.5 49.7 41.7 5.2 12.3 15.1 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.8 9.8 19.3 77.3 42.0 39.8 9.0 11.9 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 9.2 16.9 11.7 71.5 48.2 41.3 7.0 17.1 24.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.1 11.6 21.0 78.5 43.9 41.1 8.4 16.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 6.2 7.7 10.7 65.2 42.3 36.9 5.7 13.3 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.6 8.4 12.1 82.2 51.9 42.6 6.2 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 5.5 9.1 11.7 71.1 47.3 41.4 7.4 10.2 18.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 7.7 7.8 15.3 71.3 41.1 38.5 5.9 17.3 24.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.2 12.8 15.5 78.9 46.4 42.1 8.2 13.5 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 6.1 9.9 12.8 73.4 42.5 38.9 5.9 13.9 19.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 6.3 10.2 14.9 77.0 46.9 42.4 5.0 12.4 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 5.6 12.7 13.2 74.5 47.9 39.8 8.6 13.9 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 8.3 14.3 19.6 76.9 41.4 39.7 8.5 16.0 28.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 5.4 10.4 11.7 69.2 48.9 40.9 2.6 10.5 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------