***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 23 77 100 6.7 12.1 24.4 192.3 84.6 79.7 1.4 2.5 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 7.3 11.5 24.6 189.1 82.8 78.2 1.8 2.5 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 13.2 19.7 26.3 209.0 86.5 81.4 1.4 4.2 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 13.1 22.8 30.1 206.4 88.2 82.9 6.2 8.3 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 11.4 21.6 36.3 248.7 93.1 89.8 1.7 4.6 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 4 96 100 13.7 30.4 38.4 227.8 94.1 87.5 4.2 6.5 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 6.9 10.9 23.4 177.0 81.5 76.7 1.2 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 24.2 34.1 31.7 190.6 86.8 81.2 8.4 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 11.2 29.7 34.9 254.9 93.0 90.1 2.9 4.8 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 15.2 21.3 35.9 221.8 90.4 86.4 2.9 6.5 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 9.0 29.5 31.1 224.4 89.5 86.1 2.0 4.5 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 16.7 27.5 28.3 199.6 87.9 81.9 3.3 5.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 14.3 30.5 34.2 209.8 91.0 85.2 4.7 6.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 17.5 29.1 34.7 219.1 91.0 84.7 3.9 6.8 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 11.3 19.6 26.5 179.0 85.2 75.2 2.5 6.3 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 14.3 30.5 34.3 232.3 92.1 87.8 1.5 4.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 8.0 10.8 24.2 185.9 81.1 76.2 1.2 3.5 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 18.9 26.5 37.2 208.7 89.8 84.8 2.7 6.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 8.5 16.1 26.7 205.4 86.6 80.9 1.6 3.8 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 12.6 18.7 34.4 174.8 84.7 79.0 3.2 7.6 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 9.3 16.9 29.5 229.3 90.1 85.9 2.0 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 8.5 23.3 27.8 208.6 90.5 80.3 1.3 4.0 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 9.9 18.9 30.0 228.3 90.0 85.2 2.5 5.8 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 13.4 26.4 34.2 222.9 91.4 85.8 2.1 5.2 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 11.0 16.4 32.5 211.9 88.7 85.4 0.6 5.2 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 12.3 25.5 30.1 187.4 90.3 80.3 2.9 4.4 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 18 82 100 7.5 15.3 28.1 192.8 84.6 80.7 1.0 3.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 9.7 22.6 29.5 203.6 88.2 80.8 2.4 4.3 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 24.2 34.4 35.6 195.8 87.9 82.4 5.0 11.1 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 6.2 7.9 24.5 193.2 83.4 79.4 0.5 3.0 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------